Thanks Marty,
The worksheet is certainly very handy.
It really does highlight the importance of the consolidation ratio.
If we allow for a MC of $200mil which is a favourable scenario, the difference between a 20:1 and 50:1 ratio is highlighted, using the formula for todays ODN share value of
(MC Gridcomm) x (consol ratio) / (Number of GRD shares on issue post consol)
We get for 20:1
200mil/20/459mil = 2.1c share value today
but for 50:1
200mil/50/443mil = 0.9c share value today.
So the consolidation ratio is critical to the value.
Now for how much Gridcomm are effectively paying in each consol scenario:
(MC Gridcomm) x (% Gridcomm Odin controls post consol) + $4mil Odin balance sheet liabilities
20:1
$200mil x 27mil/459mil + $4 mil = $16mil
50:1
$200mil x 11mil/443mil + $4mil = $9mil
Both of these scenarios look like Gridcomm are paying quite a lot, but the 50:1 situation seems more reasonable.
Thats because the Consolidation ratio and the Market cap will be inversely proportional to each other. The more Gridcomm is going to be worth, the higher the consolidation ratio they will be asking for.
The best improvement we can make is going to be figuring out the recent historic prices for RTOs - that way we eliminate two variables - the market cap of Gridcomm and the consolidation ration in our valuation.
Still hoping for someone to step up to the mark and undertake that research for us
