Absolutely - if you are long term that the daily and weekly...

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20,454 Posts.

2015

13/04/16

17:17

Post #: 17495459
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Originally posted by paperwerks ↑

Rustys,

The only reason that mention it was this all was reminding me of my experience with Capilano Honey ( CZZ ) a few years ago.
That stock was very cheap at 6 times earnings and 1/2 book value so I loaded up on it at $2.40 a share. I stopped buying when it ran up to only $2.80 waiting for a pullback to buy more. No pullback ever came for me.

About 3-4 months later the stock ran up to $5.50 on high volume giving me a double very quickly. But then volume dried up and the price started slipping back.... TA looked bad.... I was watching the price and volume very closely.... I did not want to give back any more of that fast double so I bailed out at $4.65 and felt happy and smart.

But I was really hypnotized watching price movements and missed out on the story of rising earnings, sales and PE multiple expansion that was right there to see if I wasn't watching the chart so closely. A couple of years later and today and CZZ is $21. !! If only I had had the patience to sit tight and let the story play out. CZZ was a Disallowed!! I had it on my fishing line and started to reel it in, but I panicked and it got away early.

I see the same value realization taking place here. Yes, the chart looks overbought and ripe for a pullback and Brexit could be trouble (temporary) for AVG but lots of cash is going to fall right to the bottom line in 2017-18 when those above market grape contracts go away and this brand is growing gangbusters too. I just have to resist temptation to cash out until then for technical reason or worrying that the shares are being manipulated and remind myself of the value now and the value that will be in just a couple of years.

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Absolutely - if you are long term that the daily and weekly gyrations don't matter. I have some some of my holdings as I needed cash to move into a few other stocks , and I suspect the market may need some news to go higher . I noticed that looking at last few reports the Dec quarter cash/ debt looks the best as it is before the harvest ,but the mid year report sees cash / debt weaken due to costs of harvest

As AVG has indicated the cash flow benefits will progressively kick in so from a medium term I have no doubt stock will do well , but I do think it will take a pause and will be range bound for a while .

AVG Price at posting: 57.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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