All of the points, potential premium, anticipating, speculation,...

All of the points, potential premium, anticipating, speculation, known, unknown, breeding hope, rough time, human defensing mechanism, and so on, are very interesting subjects.

All of us want to get profit, but all of us stay in some invisible or visible boxes.
1. We want to anticipate the future price movement, but since the limitation of the box, we speculate something with breading hopes.
2. We want to get the potential premium, but since too many unKnowns, we could take excessive risks for the paper profit or hard-earned capital.
3. We want to protect ourselves in this rough time, but since the "know the Knowns," we could not give up the hope and the potential premium.

Even playing in the market since 1996, I am still confused by the market in most of time.
1. Sometimes I believed I had made a great buying but a few days late, some unexpected bad events happened in series. I just simply could not act as quick as the market movement.
2. Sometimes I started worring a stock or felt it went too far, then the profit was locked, but after that, it overcome all of bad sensation and shoot up unbelievable level.

So we have to ask what business we do in what kind of business area corresponing to the risks in the market when we hold FMS! So far I just identify three types of business in the market:
1. Risk a succession of pennies to win dollars
2. Gamble a succession of dollars to win pennies
3. Bet one set of pennies to win dollars

At moment, the shareholders of FMS, I felt, are betting one set of pennies to win dollars. It is a high risk and high reward business. You could not look down anyone of them.
1. It is different between "to win" and "will win," let alone no one could figure out what would be exactly.
2. That is the feature of this type of business. It has the risk and potential big risk, which you have to admit without matter what we thought.
3. You have to know the risk could be very serious. You could lose a lot. In my case, I could lose most of my paper profit.

What's the sources of the risks?
1. BRIC shown some clear signs that their industrializaion was moving into end
2. IO supplies would overpass the demands
3. FMS IO has much lower IO in amount and grade than its assumption.

No one wants to throw the money into the water. I don't want to throw my paper profit into the water too. Why do I bet on it?
1. The risks look huge and possible but I do feel the probability is quite low, 10% around, I guess. No way to get accurate number
2. FMS IO has shown there. Its drilling has being added the odds for a reasonable big amount of IO with acceptable grade.
3. IO is necessities and IO booming could be stopped only by some global disasters to everyone and everyone should be losers, in my view.
4. If something higher than human doesn't make a joke with our generations, the resource booming should be stronger and longer.

I don't worry the disaster to everyone, which is the fate of the human kind. So I do care about
1. The FMS IO amount which will make or fail FMS
2. The risks which should be affordabe.

The financial tsunami let everyone in the market feel uncomfortable. Do you know if the tsunami would destory the global financial system? I don't know but I believe(no guess, no fact, no certainty) it will not.

FMS goes! I do hope the set of my pennies in FMS IO could become dollars. No worrys mate if you want to pay the pennies as the cost for dollars.