continental coal shares climb 10.87%, page-7

PE multiples should not be applied to free cash flow/EDITDA - but rather NPAT

more realistic multiple might be 6 to 8 (BigBillBrown - your thoughts?)

= MC of between $456m & $608m = SP $1 - $1.30 fully diluted (only listed oppies)

but this gives no value for Botswana assets, nor Vlakplaats, which could also be in production by 2013 - would also expect one or all of the other 3 DeWitt Complex projects to be producing by 2013/14

Wolvenfontein also looks like a project which would require minimal capex, and could be taken into production quickly, ala Vlakvarkfontein - given the shallow resource, low strip ratios & relatively thick coal seams

If you are bullish on thermal coal prices, then the profit margins will look much better - each $1 rise in RB coal prices = ~$1.8m extra free cash, post DeWitt completion/full production

It would seem to be a logical strategy to acquire a producing mine near the Ermelo Delta operations to fully utilise the 1.8mtpa capacity of the wash plant - likely one of the mines CCC are now buying in coal from. DT told me that the rail siding can easily be upgraded above the current 1.2mtpa capacity

... just some random thoughts ...