Continued... Thoughts on SWF's future and growth

(was unable to reply in previous thread due to a HC bug so continuing in this new one...)

@leasx said, "Agreed + cash accounts should be close to $300 million. Once it gets an AFR write-up on cashflow positive it will head to $1."

Client cash held at the close of Q3 2020 was already more than $300 million, it was $359 million. Therefore client cash held at the end of this FY should be around $400 million, if not more, according to my estimate based on last quarter's 4C. Here are the highlights from the 4C for Q3 2020 as a reminder:

• Accelerated growth in ‘active traders’ joining the platform. Up 48% quarter-on-quarter, to 32,313.
• Operating revenue exceeds $2m. Up 74% quarter-on-quarter.
• Cash burn reduced from $535k to $70k. Down 87% quarter-on-quarter.
• Value of ‘client cash held’ hits a record high of $359m. Up 164% quarter-on-quarter.
• Quarterly trade volumes reach 161k. Up 103% quarter-on-quarter.
• Successful capital raise of $3m completed early March.
• Company continues to operate smoothly with no negative impact from COVID-19.

If SWF's growth in on-boarding new clients this quarter has continued from Q3's (and specifically March's) accelerated rate, my target price per share is 50 cents. This is because such growth represents around 12 months worth of anticipated new active traders joining the platform in a single quarter!

Whilst I would love to see the SP hit $1 this calendar year such a milestone appears too optimistic, but I think it could eventuate next FY. Such a valuation makes sense to me if the platform reaches 70k active traders.

Reaching 70k active traders is possible next FY should the current momentum be maintained for another quarter and organic growth doesn't decline.

Finally I think there's the potential $1 might be achieved sooner if international trading launches within 3-6 months and without a hitch. I believe this to be the case as it would be game changing if SWF's expected fee is maximum US$9.50+0.25% FX compared to around 0.75% FX fee that current platforms charge, in addition to their ancillary fees, complicated terms and conditions.

(FYI: the "no-fee" international trading platforms appear to charge around 1% FX fee so they're not really "no-fee" after all!! And for comparison, nabtrade charges me minimum $14.95 plus FX fee of a "spread of between 0.50% to 0.80%" -- So I'm super excited for SWF to launch international trading asap as the savings will be material!)

Am curious what others estimate the numbers for the following will be for Q4? Here are my guesses:

• Active traders: 45k
• Operating revenue: $3m
• Cash burn: $200k
• Client cash: $410 million
• Trade volum: 180k