Continued... Thoughts on SWF's future and growth, page-2

Guesses:

• Active traders: 50k (assumes sign-ups to remain almost as high as March for Apr-Jun.)
• Operating revenue: $3-4m (if client cash sits at $400m, and I think trades have risen from March)
• Cash flow: +$100-300k
• Client cash: $400m/550m (conservative & optimistic guesses). (if active users hit 50k, then $400m would mean $8k cash per trader. Down from the new record of $11.1k in March and up from the usual $6-7k in pre-Jan). March cash per user rising so much was a surprise for me, so I'll say $400m as the somewhat conservative number, coming back almost down to Jan numbers, and $550m as the optimistic number if cash per user stayed at $11k like in March.
• Trade volume: 300k (sounds crazy compared to your number, but mine just assumes April-May to equal March, and June to beat it).

Then to calculate in reverse to see what my numbers would suggest in terms of revenue.

300k trades * $9.50 - 12% free trades = $2.5m revenue from trades
$475m cash at EOQ (using the mid-point of my guesses), then taking the prior EOQ number of $359m = $417m average cash held during the quarter.
1.05% NIM on $417m * 3 months = $1.1m interest
$200-400k from subscription (this is the quarter with EOFY skew). Call it $275k.
= $2.5m+1.1m+0.275m
= $3.875m
And ETF can round that to $3.88m.

By comparison, last quarter had $2.076m revenue, though the month of March (corona spike) had $1.03m.

Jan: $480k
Feb: $565m
Mar: $1.03m

Apr Est: $1.1m
May Est: $1.25m
Jun Est: $1.53m

Looks like a huge jump from Jan to June, but that would also be on the back of active traders jumping from 23,500 to 50,000 (my assumption), plus the corona volume (trades/cash) still being above baseline.