As 'mere mortals' we're generally the last to know in most situations, and consequently have to use good judgment and a healthy dose of cynicism and/or faith when dealing with this type of thing...........delays happen its the way of things..........it isn't ideal but is what it is.
As for actively not disclosing or withholding info.............they have experienced some delays and we have been informed and they have encountered a few 'unforeseen troubles' with shipping and we have been informed...............however...............have they been totally forthcoming and timely in updating the mkt on crucial progress of various key elements and any issues they have encountered...........are we being fully 100% informed................make your own decisions on this of course...........mine are outlined at the end of this 'synopsis of progress'.
Here is a rough time line and breakdown of progress as reported via ASX:
They delivered an intial MRE 19th Feb................
Decision to expedite the development studies follows the completion of a large, high grade Mineral Resource estimate for the Company’s 84% owned Longonjo NdPr Project in Angola (ASX report, 19 February 2019).
SRK Consulting have been appointed to complete the revised Mineral Resource estimate, which is scheduled for completion in June 2019.
The Company looks forward to providing updates on the above technical work programmes as results come to hand
23rd April they appoint TIm................
Tim is a Minerals Engineer with over 30 years of experience in the mining and engineering sectors, with a broad experience in mining project development throughout Sub‐Saharan Africa.
1st qtr report tells us.............
Working with Wood, the Company has defined technical programmes to deliver the PFS by September 2019. Studies include additional drilling, optimisation of the floatation process and comminution work, mining optimisation studies, a revised Mineral Resource estimate and detailed cost studies based on engineering design work.
(so at this point they have the planing and definition for PFS all sorted and in the bag so to speak and the guy to run things he's got 30yrs on the job with a strong London connect so must be decent at it, you'd hope).
24th June...........
An updated Mineral Resource estimate has commenced in support of the Preliminary Feasibility Study which is scheduled for completion in September 2019.
8th July..............
The diamond drill infill programme has confirmed the previous reverse circulation drilling results in an area of mineralisation which is the focus of the Pre Feasibility Study due to be reported in September.
2nd qtr report..............released 30/7
A series of technical programmes to support the Preliminary Feasibility Study for the development of an open pit mine and processing plant at the Company’s 84% owned Longonjo NdPr Project were in full swing during the Quarter.
(I take the "series" and "Full Swing" comments here to mean that they have started each of those programs defined in the 1st qtr rep).
The Company also completed the registration of the project with the Angolan Ministry of Environment and commenced baseline environmental and social studies. The registration is an important first step towards the permitting of the project with the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) study being a major requirements for a mining licence application for Longonjo.
9th Sept...........
The study, which is being prepared by a team of internationally recognised experts, is well advanced however as a result of minor delays in the shipment of samples for mineralogical studies and metallurgical testwork the study previously scheduled for later this month is now expected to be reported in mid to late October.
30th Sept Tim G states the following:
"Significant progress has been made on the environmental studies following the appointment of South African based HCV, supported by Angolan based Grupo Simples. These studies, geared to satisfy both local and international standards, are scheduled for completion concurrently with the technical and financial viability studies at the end of this year".
Overall, the work achieved during the year has been commendable with outstanding results from the 6,700m drilled. The initial campaign completed in September yielded a greatly expanded Mineral Resource estimate completed by industry experts SRK. This provided a solid basis for the in-fill campaign completed in the latter part of the year and enabled the commencement of pre-feasibility studies by the Wood Group (drawing on their RE projects experience).
Last qtr rep states the following: This is where most of the questioning is stemming from and probably rightly so.
SRK Consulting are working on an update to the Longonjo Mineral Resource estimate that is expected to include an amount of Indicated Mineral Resource to support the PFS................("working on an update" certainly implies that it isn't completed as of 30th Sept).
Environmental and Social Impact Assessment study for Longonjo is at an advanced stage
Work is in progress on a revised Mineral Resource estimate on which mining optimisation studies will be based. Optimisation of the flotation process and comminution work are in progress..........(again the bolded sections are telling us nothing has been completed as of 30th Sept, also sounds like as of 30th Sept that the mining optimisation studies which will be required for PFS haven't commenced).
MY TAKE ON THIS: They could be doing a far better job of updating and informing the mkt imo.
They have not met estimated timelines of that there is no doubt.........(they are only estimates however).
The first qtr rep tells us they have defined the technical programs required for PFS...........then around the end of June they inform us the revised MRE has commenced...........then in 2nd qtr rep they tell us that the series of tech programs for PFS are in full swing............then around five weeks later they inform us of the 'shipment delays' they are experiencing and push back the expected delivery date of PFS to mid to late Oct.
Now we come to the last qtr update where they tell us that work on revised MRE is still in progress (which was commenced on 24th June) and clearly until this is delivered no mining optimization studies can commence..........no mining optimization studies equal delays to PFS.............this is a timing issue that requires delineation and disclosure imo...........
They have had 4-5 weeks subsequent to qtr reporting to get these issues 'sorted' and address the market on such but they haven't.
It is interesting that the third qtr rep doesn't contain an "events subsequent to reporting period" section........the last few have at least mentioned such things.
I certainly think they could be doing a better job at informing the market especially after reading my summation above (but most companies could do better on this score down this end of the mkt).............but their apparent progress and ability to line this all up in a timely fashion I begin to question.................In other words I expect further delays.............
They seem to be 'stretching this' to coincide with the 'London move' now I think on it. What implications does this have one does wonder...........?? What exactly will they end up delivering to current holders....?
"a newly incorporated special purpose public limited company established under the laws of England and Wales"
"Pensana UK will become the new parent company of the Pensana Group and will be listed on the ASX"
"The re‐domicile will not result in any material changes to the Company’s assets, management, operations or strategy".
"Pensana UK will become the holder of all the issued shares in the Company".
To me this looks highly likely to result in increased 'corporate activity' and is aimed at such........not only are they exposing PM8 to London 'financing laws and influence' but perhaps they are looking for exposure to possible activities that might include takeover or buy outs or some such thing........excellent PFS numbers along with a solid finance package will drive significant value uplifts here and I think various interested parties have probably been looking at the PM8 resource from a strategic perspective and the REE sector in general very closely of late.
This is all totally unfounded and wild speculation on my part of course..............all of this could well be 'benign', and is most likely aimed at improving our odds at achieving the financing required for full development..........anyway my brain is hurting from thinking on all this so good luck to all involved.
Changing my sentiment to hold here.............thanks for asking the questions @Charterrierist as this has made me have a 'secondary' deeper look into things.
