I think you are probably in the ball park. What we know is that 8,000 schools are involved in the initial pilot study and that testing is non-mandatory. Testing will only be done where endorsed by parents. The missing bits of info: 1. Number of students (8000 schools times x students) 2. % of parents who will support the pilot? 3. Frequency of testing x length of pilot
Notwithstanding the lack of this info, around 50-100 kits per school sounds reasonable. That is, 400,000 to 800,000.
Don't know about pricing and discounts, but your forecasts seem reasonable.
I wouldn't be disappointed if it was only half of that - as its only a pilot and is not the core market being sought (ie US workplace testing) and other markets are emerging rapidly elsewhere in the world.
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