BRN (ASX) Contrarian views

Originally posted by shareman: ↑

The recent events on HotCopper where BRN bulls were triggered into meltdown by a single article that raised some issues only serves to reinforce some of the views below.

As I have posted previously, for those who are brave enough to take ared pill:

- In my opinion, BRN is still a very high-risk play due to the fast-changing and ferociously competitive sector it operates in. It may well succeed (which would be great), but the chances are still reasonably low and they have their work cut out for them. If you would not bet the amount of money you have invested in BRN on a horse with a significant chance of failure, it might be wise to at least reflect on whether you may have invested more than you can afford to lose

- At this stage we just don’t know whether the Akida technology is mature and robust enough for it to be a commercial success, or whether it will end up as just a hobbyist’s toy. Only time will tell.

- There is enormous competition out there from all sorts of architectures. Despite what BRN bulls might try and convince you of, a competitor to Akida does NOT need to be another neuromorphic chip. It can be ANY architecture that satisfies the customer's needs.

- Many posters here seem to claim Akida will be placed in almost every product that exists and the only reason we have not heard about it is because it is subject to an NDA. Of course, this exact same logic could also be applied to every one of the many competitors to Akida that exist, and similarly it could be argued they have all entered into many agreements subject to an NDA too

- The reality is 99% of the times posters here have speculated that Akida might be involved in something, it will likely end up having been a competitor. The irony is the excitement generated by this speculation has helped to inflate the share price, where in reality it should actually be lowering it.

- The fact some posters here like to present BRN as having no competition, and get triggered when anyone mentions the “competitor” word, should be a big red flag

- In my view, BRN’s share price has been inflated, at least in part, by gullible and vulnerable people falling for the wild speculation posted on BrainChip Facebook groups, reddit, HC posts, telegram messages etc. In my opinion, this had resulted in significant FOMO which has manifested in the recent price action.

- The fact many BRN bulls were triggered into meltdown by a single news article that raised some issues re BRN, suggests to me:
1. posters here are far less confident in Akida than they let on;
2. contrary to what they claim, many posters here are not long term holders, as otherwise it is hard to see why they were so triggered by a single article! At the end of the day, if Akida is as good as they all claim, this article is totally irrelevant to the long term success of BRN which will be determined largely by the success of the technology itself. The fact so many posters were triggered, suggests many are in fact traders and feel the share price can only be propped up by suppressing or boycotting any view that does not support the "BRN will be worth 10x Microsoft" narrative.

Expand

In my view, at this point in time BRN is viewed largely as a meme trading stock by the investment/trading community.

I believe it is likely traders/cult members are pouring in at the moment as BRN is well known for its pump and dump cycles. They all hope to get in and sell on the pump, and quickly get out before the likely dump occurs.

Gains (or losses) from trading can be completely divorced from the underlying fundamentals of the company. If you have made gains trading, this is no reflection on whether BRN will ultimately be a successful business or not.

Trading gains are much more akin to gambing. Sadly, more and more research is linking speculative trading to problem gambling. See for example the master's thesis below.

https://www.proquest.com/openview/032d7d821d0aa1dd22bb6e10987c1b28/1.pdf?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y

"Results suggest speculative trading may constitute problem gambling and imply financial FOMO may be an important construct to investigate in relation to problem gambling".

No.	Vol.	Price($)
16	364081	20.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

364081

20.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
20.5¢	1348618	18

Price($)

Vol.

No.

20.5¢

1348618

No.	Vol.	Price($)
11	199988	0.200
41	1118223	0.195
53	1539533	0.190
32	1383291	0.185
45	1476388	0.180

No.

Vol.

Price($)

199988

0.200

1118223

0.195

1539533

0.190

1383291

0.185

1476388

0.180

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.205	1097428	14
0.210	1198206	19
0.215	422560	18
0.220	724111	24
0.225	361409	12

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.205

1097428

0.210

1198206

0.215

422560

0.220

724111

0.225

361409

(20min delay)
Last 20.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $371.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
19.5¢	20.5¢	19.5¢	$656.1K	3.281M

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