Just did a quick google re conversion rates and found this:
*Normal conversion rates = 3%-5%
*Assume optimistic rates = 12%-15%
*Trial rates: 30k/month
*expected conversion:900-1500
*optimistic conversion:3600-4500
Assuming breakeven is now 50000 subscribers (as costs halved);
*expected breakeven:4.5 - 2.7 years
*optimistic breakeven: approx 1 year.
They really need to be pushing their trial uptake - thus they need plenty of money to push marketing.
"The Try Card was first launched on the Orange SPV C500 smartphone in June 2004. The Try Card succeeded in pushing trial and purchase of new mobile applications.
Conversion rates of 12% were achieved for applications on the Try Card. This figure compares favourably with average Internet-based conversion rates from trial to purchase of 3 - 5%.
Orange plan to incorporate the Try Card on future smartphone launches. It is expected that the Try Card will help to drive adoption of new mobile services and increase usage of advanced features on Orange smartphones.
source:http://64.233.179.104/search?q=cache:p0UsatxAtM0J:silkmobile.com/03case/cas_tryc.html+%22adoption%22+%2B%22conversion+rates%22+%2B%22mobile+phone%22+%2B%22applications%22+&hl=en&gl=au&ct=clnk&cd=1
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