Convertible Notes reset price Dec 2015, page-4

Nice analysis Mr McGee.
Its also worth considering that there is also the $265M USD Secured note due for repayment 2017.
I can't see how they can repay this unless they get at least $265M USD for the US oil assets.

That would then leave them with no Revenue and ongoing Admin costs.

If they can convert the convertible note into shares this is what the cashflow might look like for a full year.
Production 16000boe
Revenue $57M
Production costs $26M
Admin costs $25M
Interest payments $52M
Capital spend on oil fields $5M
Net Cashburn $51M

Not 100% sure what capitalising the coupon payments means on the secured note but if it means it gets paid on redemption rather than 4 times a year the cash flow would be a Net cashburn of $4M.
If that is the case the the repayment of the note will cost at least $365M USD instead of $265M USD.

This does however assume that production levels hold even though new wells are not being drilled and it also assumes Admin costs are further reduced from existing levels.
It also does not factor in the current ongoing legal case costs or potential settlement.

In summary I think to survive they will also need to get the secured note holders to agree to convert the $265M USD notes into shares as well even though the settlement terms do not allow that.
That would likely add at least another 3.3 billion shares to the existing shares.

I think once they have done that they would then need to try and do another Capital raising of at least $50M to give them some working capital.

Assuming they can do all that and win the legal case they might have a chance of surviving.
The downside for shareholders is their holding will be massively diluted.