Great post, nicely illustrates the effect of Notes dilution. I...

Great post, nicely illustrates the effect of Notes dilution. I note your calculations are based on worst case NPV of 203m, their LOM range is 203m-274m with projected cash surplus during LOM in range 291m-412m.

Further highlights of the recent LOM include:
LOM updated to reflect ***current*** operating costs with scope to manage these efficiently in future years
&
LOM does not include the potential for resource upgrades from proposed exploration activities at the site

So a key point here is that they have been very conservative in their LOM calcs regarding operating costs, we know that these are likely to come down substantially from the levels used for the calcs thus profits increase accordingly. (Indeed they seem to have very conservative with the whole LOM projections, perhaps clearing the way for future earnings surprises). The major unknown is the forward Ni price.

Also this was in the LOM:
Debt Repayment Plan
...The assessment of potential cash reserves indicates the Company could repay its total debts at the conclusion of the Project�s mine life or make principal and interest repayments over the LOM. The Company is currently in discussions with its major lender, the Jinchuan Group, to restructure its current debt facilities so that the repayment terms are manageable within the LOM, subject to the Company�s cash flow.

REPAY THE NOTES LOAN NOW! No further dilution!

Question for drunkensailor, you haved based your SP projections on the NPV. Would you care to present a case for SP based on P/E ratios, & also calculate the current P/E ratio given earnings in the latest Quarterly with the knowledge that April earnings are well ahead of March 2011 (I know I heard this, can't recall where)?