Morning all.
Isn't this exciting!!!
My view ( which means AIMO):
The jury is still out and there is no need to jump to any conclusions... BUT I note the following:
1. Both COP and WPL have stated clearly, from the outset, that they will push ahead with the deal to conclude same before year end. That's what they did and that has now materialised. But this raises a few concerns.
2. If FAR was of belief that they had a strong case to PE, would it then not be prudent to take preventative measure (obtain injunctive relief to "halt" the deal from concluding) to protect their presumed rights?
3. I expressed concern early in the part that FAR may have failed to take pro-active measures during the first 30 days and make its intention known to COP that they (COP) were in non-compliance with JOA terms. Not sure when this notice was given, but if done after expiry of 30 days, it really does not paint a good picture.
4. For the deal to have completed suggests that Senegal did not object to the sale withing 60 days from notification( going on assumption that this provision appeared in the PSC) and the gov's is thus deemed to have consented to the sale. WPL and COP would have waited for the 60 day to transpire before proceeding towards conclusion. Again, did FAR do whatever it could to "stop the clock" on the 60days ... apparantly not...but see below.
5. so you'd have to ask, why not??... is it perhaps because they were involved in constructively carving out a deal? A deal that can only come to fruition once the WPL/COP deal have concluded?.. We simply don't know.
6. Were they (FAR) caught sleeping behind the wheel???... not certain at all but the above must be taken in consideration. Again, we have simultaneous announcements (on Saturday) from COP and WPL. Had there been an amicable resolution, one of 3 things could have happened: (a) All three parties make synchronised statements..but this did not happen, or; (b) The parties agreed that COP and WPL make statements over the weekend, those statements then to be followed up by a FAR statement on Monday.... wishful thinking??... probably so, or (3) COP and WPL went ahead in their "hard*%^se" manner and gave FAR the "bird".. more than likely??
7. COP and WPL both having pushed for completion, does that necessarily take away FAR's rights to pursue PE... I think NOT...but you'd have to wonder about the "preventative measures" that could/should have been taken in a timely fashion.
8. I note that the announcements this morning made no mention of acquiring the option to take over "operatorship" in due course...
.. So something yet to be dealt with to resolve that issue??.. Maybe..
All in all, there is just so many unknowns that we could speculate till the cows come home and we still won't know what transpired... Best we wait for Monday. Anything less that a T/H first thing monday morning could lead to a lot of blood on the streets (hmmmm. make me wonder about the massive increase in shorts over the last week or 2.. someone is always in the know... it's just never the retailer
.)
But how about this??? Who's to say that the current announcements is not perhaps the "Re-start" of the PE period??? As CN stated in a caption posted by Roya Pandi: "I am aware of the WPL announcement. FAR will make a statement in due course."..... hmmm
Jury is till out... so still holding and it's not quite time to fold'em.
Have a good weekend...it's out of our hands.
(20min delay)