copenhagen

What does the Copenhagen "deal" mean to ESI?

The ability to finance CCS via the "deal" is for now gone - will likely still happen soon though.

CCS is just an indicator of the carbon "feel". The general attitude to "clean coal" is - its a waste of everyones money (financing wars will always take priority) - because CCS is correctly deemed unviable in every way. CCS is a dream - not an answer to climate change.

So what does that (temporary?) CCS ban mean to ESI?

Nothing negitive. CCS is a dream - not an answer to climate change - Coldry is THE answer re lignite - the worst offender. The market has already distinguished that fact.

Why have ESI been able to sign Tincom/AMI pre Copenhagen - and negotiate with 80 others (10 are India - where are the other 70?)?

For the same reason why China recently wanted ESI as the gold sponsor for their only lignite conference attended by everyone that matters. Lignite companies worldwide are DESPERATE to get the "heat" off themselves by drastically reducing emissions - and then be seen as the nice enviro friendly guys. But the enviro concern is secondary.

Remember - lignite burning is the No1 culprit wrt climate change - likely it will get the No1 attention eventually.

South East Asia NEEDS BCE - and quick. As an example Podium stated:

"A meeting with the chairman of EVN, the State owned electricity network, indicated that from 2035 Vietnam would experience a shortfall of up to 250m tpa of thermal coal."

So Viet needs to make up the 250mtpa shortfall - how are they going to do that? Obviously the Tincom deal will supply 20mtpa eventually. Still the Coldry contribution is miniscule. Remember though, Tincom have the rights for 100mtpa in Aust + the rights to build plants in other nations. Tincom imo know they are on a winner.

Highlights WHY Tincom/AMI etc are so keen to secure funding/progress a deal with a microcap pumpadumpa coy.

Viet gets guaranteed long term BCE supply at a uniform price per tonne - perrrfect. The enviro factor is secondary. Viet/China need BCE - simple. Cop outcome is largely irrelevent here. AMI deal - same story. And likely the 80 coys ESI are negotiating with atm are all in a similar boat - they desperately need BCE - preferrably enviro friendly. Coldry is the only answer atm.

So when the climate change "real deal" happens (July+?) - Coldry/Matmor will get a nudge along bigtime. Until then, its BAU - just signing/progressing the 80+ leads. I can live with that.

Interesting Tim Flannerys comments on it all:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/19/2776545.htm?section=world

Another very interesting article below:
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"Investors give cautious thumbs up to climate deal"

"The private sector is expected to supply most capital to drive a global shift to a greener economy away from burning fossil fuels.

Businesses and in particular the energy sector say they need clear carbon targets so that they can invest appropriately - for example in power plants which may last for more than 40 years ...

Business analysts applauded how the agreement involved the major economies for the first time in making commitments to curb emissions - cementing a global shift to a low-carbon world ...

"The implications for investment flows is very clear, we're irreversibly on a low-carbon path ," said Abyd Karmali, head of emissions trading at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"That should give comfort to people who are investing in low-carbon technology ."

"For the first time you've got all the major economies making real commitments to reducing their emissions," said Mark Kenber, policy director at the Climate Group.

"While expectations were low for a binding agreement to come out of Copenhagen, today's deal marks a promising milestone by major countries coming together to form an agreement," said Amit Chatterjee, CEO and founder of environmental software company Hara...

"Businesses will now look to national governments to put their pledges into law to give them the certainty to invest in a low-carbon future," said Kenber.

CARBON MARKET

Strong carbon cuts drive demand for emissions permits -- the currency of carbon markets.

Friday's agreement was just enough to drive continuing demand for such permits, and healthy carbon prices, analysts said. "It's just enough ambition to develop an adequate carbon price," said Kenber.

Strong carbon commitments discourage energy companies from emitting greenhouse gases, for example from burning coal in power plants."
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http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/Investors-give-cautious-thumbs-up-to-climate-deal/articleshow/5355080.cms

http://www.markstone.com.au/vietnam/