Bulletin released on 19th of September. Lots to wade through but...

Bulletin released on 19th of September. Lots to wade through but interesting reading for GGYers.



The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for 1st Half 2007 for world copper
supply and demand in its September 2007 Copper Bulletin.

According to the preliminary ICSG data, refined copper usage continued to exceed refined copper production,
resulting in a production deficit of around 50,000 metric tonnes (t) in June 2007. After making seasonal
adjustments for world refined usage and production, however, the market showed a surplus of about 10,000 t.

The apparent refined copper balance for the first half of 2007, including revisions to data previously presented,
indicates a production deficit of about 340,000 t (a seasonally adjusted deficit of 130,000 t), due primarily to strong Chinese apparent usage.

This compares with a production deficit of 3,000 t (but a seasonally adjusted surplus of about 210,000 t) for the same period in 2006. In the first half of 2007, world refined copper usage is estimated to have increased by 8.4% compared with usage in the same period in 2006. Chinese apparent usage grew by 37% during the first 6 months of 2007 compared with that in the first 6 months of 2006 as net imports of refined copper rose by 245% to about 853,000 t.

World usage outside of China grew by less than 1% and was supported by increases in Indian and Russian usage of 15% and 4%, respectively. Year-on-year apparent usage in the EU-15 countries , which had grown by more than 10% for full-year 2006, decreased by 3.8% in the first half of 2007, and usage in Japan and the United Sates decreased by 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively.

On the supply side, world mine production increased by almost 5% in the first half of 2007 compared with that in the same period of 2006, when production was reduced by technical problems and strikes: concentrate production was up by 4% and SX-EW production was up by 10%.

Year-on-year mine production for the first 6 months of 2007 was up by 15% in Asia, 7% in Latin America and 1% in Africa, but decreased by 2% in North America, 2% in Europe and 4% in Oceania. Global mine capacity utilization increased to an average of 88% from an average of 87% in the same period of 2006.

Total world refined production increased by 4.3% in the first 6 months of 2007 compared with refined production in the same period in 2006: primary production was up by 3.9% (with the biggest share of the growth attributed to SX-EW production) and secondary production (from scrap) was up by 6.6%. With the exception of the United States , where production fell by 2.3%, most major producing countries increased their production: Chile (10%), China (7%), Japan (4%), India (21%) and Russia (8%).

Refined capacity utilization rates decreased slightly to 83.3%.

The average LME cash price for August 2007 decreased to US$7,513.50 per tonne from the July 2007 average of US$7,973.91 per tonne.

The 2007 high and low copper prices through the end of August were US$8,225.00 and US$5,225.50 per tonne,
respectively, and the average was US$7,015.55 per tonne.

As of the end August 2007, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 224,676 t, a decrease of 28,114 t from stocks held at the end of December 2006.

As compared with stock levels in the preceding month, stocks held at the end of August 2007 were up at the LME but down at COMEX and SHFE.