Been a long term holder of PNA and thought the following article of note: SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Copper mine supply could struggle to match forecast demand growth in the period to 2013, Macquarie Bank said in a report dated Tuesday.
The bank said copper demand was expected to be 4 million metric tons higher in 2013 than 2009, implying that a significant number of new mine projects will need to come onstream to balance the market.
"There is little margin for delays and disruption, and it is fairly easy to make a case for the copper market being very tight at some stage over this period," said the report.
Macquarie noted that well known mega-projects like BHP Billiton's (BHP) Olympic Dam will not come onstream until the middle of the next decade, leaving supply dependent on smaller mines.
"Overall, what we find is that there is only a very small number of large expansions committed for the next five years, and the largest are in the 100,000-200,000 tons per annum range," it said.
The bank said there are a large number of smaller-scale projects that have the potential to fill the gap, but there is little visibility on whether these mines, currently in the possible or probable categories, will come onstream in time.
"The collapse in prices in the fourth quarter of last year and the lack of available funding since that time have put many of these projects on the back burner, and whether they can be brought into production in time to meet demand is questionable."
The bank said that around half the new mine supply will come from Latin America and around a quarter from Africa, with the rest of the world supplying the balance.
PNA Price at posting:
37.4¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
