Copper: Preliminary Data for February 2008The International...

Copper: Preliminary Data for February 2008

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for February 2008 for world copper
supply and demand in its May 2008 Copper Bulletin. The Bulletin is available for sale upon request.
According to the preliminary ICSG data, the copper market presented an apparent production deficit in February
of around 60,000 metric tonnes (t). After making seasonal adjustments for world refined usage and production,
however, February showed a smaller deficit of about 30,000 t. The apparent refined copper balance for the first
2 months of 2008, including revisions to data previously presented, indicates a production deficit of about
60,000 t (a seasonally adjusted deficit of 15,000 t) and was essentially unchanged from that during the first 2 months of 2007.
World refined copper usage levels in the first 2 months of 2008 remained unchanged when compared with usage in the same
period of 2007. A decrease of 8% in apparent usage in the EU-15 countries and flat usage in China were offset by a combined
increase of 3% in the United States and Japan, and a 4% increase in the rest of the world. Note that China’s apparent copper
usage is based only on reported data (production + net trade +/- SHFE stock changes) and does not take into account changes in
unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer and merchant/trader], which may be significant during
periods of stocking or de-stocking.
World mine production decreased by 3.8% in first 2 months of 2008 compared with production in the same month of 2007:
Concentrate production was down by 4.5% and SX-EW production decreased by 1%. World production was affected mainly by
lower year-on-year output in China, Indonesia and Mexico. However, when comparing the average daily mine production in the
first 2 months of 2008 with the average of the last quarter of 2007, world mine production decreased by 9.5%, mainly owing to
declines in Chile, China and Peru, where either operational problems, labour issues or adverse weather led to a drop in
production. As a result, the average global mine capacity utilization rate fell to about 81% in the first two months of 2008 as
compared with 87% in the same period of 2007.
World refined production in the first 2 months of 2008 remained practically unchanged as compared to the same period of 2007
(increased by 14,000 t only). A growth of 2% in electrolytic production was offset by a decline in electrowining (SX-EW) and
secondary (from scrap) production of 1% and 4%, respectively. However, when compared to the average daily production levels
of the 4th quarter of 2007 refined production fell by 3%: decreases occurred in several countries, but mainly in Chile (-2%) and
China (-13%), where production was affected by operational problems and adverse weather conditions. On a year-on-year basis ,
refined production was down in Europe (1.3%) and Oceania (1.1%), but up in Africa (3%), the Americas (0.5%) and Asia (2.8%).
The average global refined capacity utilization rate declined to about 81% in the first two months of 2008 as compared with 84.5%
in the same period of 2007.

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