copper in surplus

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Global copper market in surplus by 15,000 mt in March: ICSG Source: Platts See also Copper Board Copper Catalog The global refined copper market showed an apparent production surplus of about 15,000 mt in March, increasing to about 59,000 mt after seasonal adjustments for world usage, according to preliminary data by the International Copper Study Group released Tuesday. The apparent refined copper balance for the January-March 2006 period, including revisions to data previously presented, indicated a cumulative production surplus of about 64,000 mt and, when seasonally adjusted, a surplus of 150,000 mt. That compares with a production deficit of 89,000 mt (seasonally adjusted 12,000 mt) for the same period in 2005, the ICSG said. In the first quarter of 2006, world refined copper usage was up about 1% compared with usage in the first quarter of 2005, while March 2006 use was up by 2% against March 2005, the ICSG said. First-quarter usage in China was down by 6.4%, the ICSG said, explaining that a 20% hike in refined production was more than offset by a 59% decline in net refined copper imports. The ICSG said that it does not take into account changes in China's SRB stocks, which are unreported, in its calculation of China's apparent usage. In the US first-quarter usage remained poor, down 2.7%, with Russian consumption off 7%. After revisions made to European trade data, EU-15 apparent usage grew 11% in the first quarter of 2006 compared with usage in the same period of 2005. the ICSG said. In Japan usage was up by 20% in March 2006 as compared with usage in March 2005, resulting in accumulated usage for the first quarter, which had been flat in the first two months of 2006, increasing by 7% compared with that of the first quarter of 2005. India achieved year-to-date growth of 15%, it added. Q1 world mine output declines 0.75% year on year World mine production continued to underperform, slipping by 0.75% in the first quarter of 2006 against year-ago levels, the ICSG said, adding that concentrate production was down by 1.4%, and SX-EW production was up by 2%. Four out of the five leading mine producers registered falls in production; Chile (-0.5%), the US (-4%), Indonesia (-31%), and Australia (-2%), and this more than offset increases in other countries, the ICSG explained. In addition, mine capacity utilization slipped to an average of 85% from an average of 88% in the same period of 2005, it added. Total world refined production increased by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2006 against year-ago levels. Primary production was up by 4.7% and secondary production (from sc-rap) was up by 6%, it said. Refined capacity utilization rose to an average of 82.5%, up from the 81% average in the same period of 2005. The ICSG said that a decline in the Americas (-2%), mainly from Chile (-4%), and in Oceania (-6%) was more than offset by increases in Asia (+14%), principally by China (+20%) and India (43%), increases in Africa (+12%), and increases in Europe (+1.5%). Exchange-held stock virtually unchanged As of the end of May 2006, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totaled 165,078 mt, virtually unchanged from those held at the end of April, but 8,827 mt lower than those held at the end of December 2005, the ICSG said. Stocks were down on Comex and LME and up on SHFE. The average LME cash price for May 2006 was $8,045.86/mt, up significantly against the April average of $6,387.78/mt. The 2006 LME average cash price through May was $5,828.91/mt. The 2006 high and low copper prices through end of May were $8,788.00/mt and $4,537.00/mt, respectively, the ICSG said.