Copper Macro Thread, page-207

Citi analysts see copper price at $10,000 per ton by year-end

This week, Citi analysts said they believe this century’s second copper bull market is currently underway — roughly two decades after the first such cycle.
On Monday, Citi projected that copper prices are set to rise in the coming months, with expectations to average around $10,000 per metric ton by year-end and climbing to $12,000 by 2026, according to the bank’s base-case scenario.
In a research note cited by CNBC on Wednesday, analysts at Citi wrote:
“Explosive price upside is possible over the next 2-3 years too, if a strong cyclical recovery occurs at any time, with prices potentially rising more than 2/3rds to $15k/t+ in this, our bull case scenario”.
“Our $12k/t base case assumes only a small uptick in cyclical demand growth over the course of 2025 and 2026”.

“Tight concentrates availability is increasingly capping production at China’s smelters and refiners, potentially pushing consumers of refined metal back into international markets”.
“At the same time, demand in the US and Europe should bounce back as economies bottom out; this, along with rising demand from the energy transition, will likely move the copper market into deficit this year.”