Copper juniors:
We’ll know soon enough if BHP’s copper-focussed break-up plans for AAL is a happening thing thanks to the UK’s 28-day “put up or shut’’ takeover provisions.
In the meantime, BHP’s double M & A dip into copper (OZ and potentially AAL), along with the advance in the copper price to two-year highs of $US4.43/lb, should have a rub-off effect on the junior copper explorers where the upside leverage to “pronounced” copper deficits and tear-away copper prices is most pronounced.
There is a subset of the junior copper explorers that like the major miners, are focussed on porphyry copper systems (60% of global production), the large low-grade deposits which because of economies of scale, can deliver multi-decade production of serious amounts of the metal in the bottom of half of the cost curve.
They require big upfront exploration and development capital which precludes a junior from going solo.
But there is nothing stopping a junior from partnering up to make it all happen with a strategic corporate, or by accessing export credit agency support, equipment vendor support, or a streaming deal when and if a project gets to the development stage as the pie by that stage would be valued in the multi billions of dollars.
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