Copper Peer Comparisons (Undeveloped Projects, Ore Reserves, PFS or FS), page-25

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Guerilla

2,644 Posts.

962

24/02/21

16:45

Post #: 51291841

Originally posted by Clark888: ↑
With a thinning copper project pipeline in Australia, in my opinion, all 4 of these undeveloped copper projects with JORC Ore Reserves will get up (even Hillside).

View attachment 2941166

The following table articulates why Havilah has the best risk-reward equation across the undeveloped Australian copper peer comparison for the ASX listed mining junior pack: Kalkaroo is number 1 or 2 in most categories (particularly where it counts: NPV and IRR).

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5
1
2
3
4 PROJECT: Kalkaroo Hillside Sulphur Springs Jervois
5 Project funding in place? No No No No
6 Primary commodity Copper-gold Copper-gold Copper-zinc Copper
7 ASX Company HAV RXM VXR KGL
8 Copper JORC Ore Reserve: Proved 430Kt (90%) 260Kt (51%)
9 Copper JORC Ore Reserve: Probable 44Kt (10%) 249Kt (49%) 119Kt (100%) 226Kt (100%)
10 NPV (pre-tax) A$M $903 $751 $472 $177
11 IRR (pre-tax) 26% # N/A 51% 23.0%
12 IRR (post-tax) 21% # 16.2% N/A N/A
13 Discount rate 7.5% (2019) 5% (2020) 8% (2018) 8% (2020)
14 A$/US$ rate 0.75 0.70 0.72 0.71
15 Copper price US$3.10/lb US$3.00/lb US$2.86/lb US$3.08/lb
16 Gold price US$1,500/oz US$1,550/oz N/A US$1,850/oz
17 Zinc price N/A N/A US$2,650/tonne N/A
18 Silver price N/A N/A N/A US$22.80/oz
19 Waste: Ore ratio 3.5:1 6.7:1 (after pre-strip) 8.7:1 4.9:1
20 Life of mine minimum 13 years initial 12 years initial 10.3 years initial 7.5 years
21 Location from port 350 km 150 km 144 km 1,700 km
22
23 Any other copper project? Mutooroo No Whims Creek, WA No
24 Any other mineral projects? Grants Basin (Fe), South Australia Hog Ranch (Gold), USA No No
# IRR is based on original Kalkaroo 18 June 2019 PFS long-term copper price of US$2.89/lb and gold price US$1,200/oz.

Three of these copper juniors in Australia are still very much undervalued compared to their copper project’s NPV.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
1
2
3
4 % of NPV (pre-tax) Market cap A$M ##
5 Havilah 7% $63
6 Rex Minerals 9% $66
7 Venturex 9% $41
8 KGL 87% $154
## As of last Friday.

The irony, Jervois project has the lowest NPV but KGL Resources Limited has the highest market capitalisation.

Copper futures (Mar'21) currently US$4.12/lb. That is definitely not factored into the current share price for the likes of HAV, VXR or RXM.

Cheers

These are only my thoughts and it does not constitute investment advice. Before acting on any information you read and before making any financial or investment decisions, you should always consult your advisor(s) or other relevant professional experts.
Expand
FWIW here is a graph comparing selected metrics (copper reserves, pre-tax NPV, Mkt cap) for the 4 undeveloped ASX Australian copper peers in the above comparison table:

Draw your own conclusions.

DYOR

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Copper Peer Comparisons (Undeveloped Projects, Ore Reserves, PFS or FS), page-25

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
1
2
3
4	PROJECT:	Kalkaroo	Hillside	Sulphur Springs	Jervois
5	Project funding in place?	No	No	No	No
6	Primary commodity	Copper-gold	Copper-gold	Copper-zinc	Copper
7	ASX Company	HAV	RXM	VXR	KGL
8	Copper JORC Ore Reserve: Proved	430Kt (90%)	260Kt (51%)
9	Copper JORC Ore Reserve: Probable	44Kt (10%)	249Kt (49%)	119Kt (100%)	226Kt (100%)
10	NPV (pre-tax) A$M	$903	$751	$472	$177
11	IRR (pre-tax)	26% #	N/A	51%	23.0%
12	IRR (post-tax)	21% #	16.2%	N/A	N/A
13	Discount rate	7.5% (2019)	5% (2020)	8% (2018)	8% (2020)
14	A$/US$ rate	0.75	0.70	0.72	0.71
15	Copper price	US$3.10/lb	US$3.00/lb	US$2.86/lb	US$3.08/lb
16	Gold price	US$1,500/oz	US$1,550/oz	N/A	US$1,850/oz
17	Zinc price	N/A	N/A	US$2,650/tonne	N/A
18	Silver price	N/A	N/A	N/A	US$22.80/oz
19	Waste: Ore ratio	3.5:1	6.7:1 (after pre-strip)	8.7:1	4.9:1
20	Life of mine	minimum 13 years	initial 12 years	initial 10.3 years	initial 7.5 years
21	Location from port	350 km	150 km	144 km	1,700 km
22
23	Any other copper project?	Mutooroo	No	Whims Creek, WA	No
24	Any other mineral projects?	Grants Basin (Fe), South Australia	Hog Ranch (Gold), USA	No	No

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
1
2
3
4		% of NPV (pre-tax)	Market cap A$M ##
5	Havilah	7%	$63
6	Rex Minerals	9%	$66
7	Venturex	9%	$41
8	KGL	87%	$154

Copper Peer Comparisons (Undeveloped Projects, Ore Reserves, PFS or FS), page-25

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