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Which copper plays do you hold and thoughts on CYM?

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06/05/21

09:24

Post #: 52973797

Originally posted by Clark888: ↑

Copper Peer Comparisons (Undeveloped Projects, Ore Reserves, PFS or FS)

For the first copper peer comparison, I have used Havilah's flagship Kalkaroo project alongside Sandfire Resources Limited's T3 Motheo project (its next flagship project).

A comparison of Havilah's 18 June 2019 Kalkaroo copper-gold project PFS (revised for the 2 December 2020 ASX Media Release new LT metal prices) with Sandfire Resources Limited's T3 Motheo copper-silver project DFS/FID (ASX announcement on 1 December 2020).

It is also highly likely that Sandfire will only end up with 85% of the T3 Motheo project, if the Botswana government backs into the project.

What surprised me was that the NPV for Kalkaroo is exactly two times the T3 Motheo project. It should be pointed out that Sandfire used a more favourable discount rate and FX rate.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
1
Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project (South Australia)
T3 Motheo Copper-Silver Project (Botswana)
2
Company
Havilah Resources Limited
Sandfire Resources Limited
3
Ownership of project
100%
100% (subject to 15% back in by Botswana government)
4
Status
PFS published 18 June 2019; Mining Leases granted; ownership of land on which project is located is via Kalkaroo pastoral lease; PEPR not yet granted
DFS published 1 December 2020; FID approval; Environmental Impact Assessment approved; land not yet acquired for the project and infrastructure; Mining Licence not yet granted
5
Mining method
Open pit
Open pit
6
Pre-tax NPV A$
A$903 million
A$451 million
7
IRR
26% (based on original PFS long-term copper price of US$2.89/lb and gold price US$1,200/oz)
25%
8
Discount rate
7.5% (2019 real)
7% (2020 real)
9
A$/US$ exchange rate
0.75
0.70
10
Copper price (long-term)
US$3.10/lb
US$3.16/lb
11
Gold price (long-term)
US$1,500/oz
-
12
Silver price (long-term)
-
US$17.92/oz
13
JORC Ore Reserve
474,000 copper tonnes; 1.4 million gold ounces. 90% in 'Proved'; 10% in 'Probable' classification
360,000 copper tonnes; 15.6 million silver ounces. All in 'Probable' category
14
Copper cut-off grade
Saprolite gold resources 0.2 g/t gold cut-off grade, while for the main Kalkaroo copper-gold resource a 0.4% CuEq cut-off grade
0.44% copper cut-off grade
15
Average production (as recovered metal) anticipated
Approximately 30,000 tonnes copper and 72,000 ounces gold p.a.
Approximately 26,500 tonnes copper and 1.1 million ounces silver p.a.
16
Life of mine (processing)
Minimum 13 years
Initial 12.5 years
17
Waste: Ore ratio (including pre-strip)
3.5:1
6.0:1
18
Mine distance to nearest port
~350 km (road and /or rail) to Port Pirie, South Australia
~1,000 km by road to Walvis Bay, Namibia

Sources for above table:
Kalkaroo https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190618/pdf/445xm614yw5s9f.pdf

T3 Motheo https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Cheers

These are only my thoughts and it does not constitute investment advice. Before acting on any information you read and before making any financial or investment decisions, you should always consult your advisor(s) or other relevant professional experts.
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Which copper plays do you hold and thoughts on CYM?

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
1		Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project (South Australia)	T3 Motheo Copper-Silver Project (Botswana)
2	Company	Havilah Resources Limited	Sandfire Resources Limited
3	Ownership of project	100%	100% (subject to 15% back in by Botswana government)
4	Status	PFS published 18 June 2019; Mining Leases granted; ownership of land on which project is located is via Kalkaroo pastoral lease; PEPR not yet granted	DFS published 1 December 2020; FID approval; Environmental Impact Assessment approved; land not yet acquired for the project and infrastructure; Mining Licence not yet granted
5	Mining method	Open pit	Open pit
6	Pre-tax NPV A$	A$903 million	A$451 million
7	IRR	26% (based on original PFS long-term copper price of US$2.89/lb and gold price US$1,200/oz)	25%
8	Discount rate	7.5% (2019 real)	7% (2020 real)
9	A$/US$ exchange rate	0.75	0.70
10	Copper price (long-term)	US$3.10/lb	US$3.16/lb
11	Gold price (long-term)	US$1,500/oz	-
12	Silver price (long-term)	-	US$17.92/oz
13	JORC Ore Reserve	474,000 copper tonnes; 1.4 million gold ounces. 90% in 'Proved'; 10% in 'Probable' classification	360,000 copper tonnes; 15.6 million silver ounces. All in 'Probable' category
14	Copper cut-off grade	Saprolite gold resources 0.2 g/t gold cut-off grade, while for the main Kalkaroo copper-gold resource a 0.4% CuEq cut-off grade	0.44% copper cut-off grade
15	Average production (as recovered metal) anticipated	Approximately 30,000 tonnes copper and 72,000 ounces gold p.a.	Approximately 26,500 tonnes copper and 1.1 million ounces silver p.a.
16	Life of mine (processing)	Minimum 13 years	Initial 12.5 years
17	Waste: Ore ratio (including pre-strip)	3.5:1	6.0:1
18	Mine distance to nearest port	~350 km (road and /or rail) to Port Pirie, South Australia	~1,000 km by road to Walvis Bay, Namibia

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Which copper plays do you hold and thoughts on CYM?

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