Interesting article on copper forecasts. Everyone forecasting...

Interesting article on copper forecasts. Everyone forecasting higher demand as we all know. All point to restart figures holding up. Investment thesis remains.

One of copper’s biggest backers, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), has touted copper as a key metal in powering the green energy revolution. While the bank has culled its short-term price forecast from US$12,000 per MT back down to US$9,000 per MT, its analysts are still predicting that the metal will reach US$15,000 per MT in 2025 — a sign the firm believes in a “clear structural bull story” for the global copper market.

The Bank of America is a bit more conservative in its estimate as it sees the copper market entering a surplus in 2023 and 2024 before “flip(ping) back into deficit by 2025.” The bank has set its copper price forecast at US$3.97 per pound (US$8,750 per MT) for 2022 and US$3.29 per pound (US$7,250 per MT) for 2023.

Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) has confidence in copper prices regaining lost ground in the next few years. It estimates that in 2022, total consumption will reach 27 million MT, while global mine production is estimated to reach around 22 million MT. “Copper demand growth is expected to be supported by global trends towards decarbonisation and renewable energy,” cites the Australian government's commodity forecaster.

The OCE sees copper prices averaging US$9,100 per MT in 2023 and US$9,000 per MT in 2024.For its part, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is forecasting that copper prices will rise to US$10,000 per MT in the second half of 2022, alongside a prediction that China copper demand will rise by 5 percent year-on-year.In a note, the investment bank states that it sees China's accelerating fixed asset investments in infrastructure and property benefiting copper and iron ore, another base metal.