"You are moving into straw man territory here, FFNZ. Your original statement was that "cobalt was being phased out", but I am yet to see any evidence to back up your claim. It isn’t a question of which chemistry will have the greatest market share of the battery market in years to come."
There is no doubt that car manufacturer's including Tesla are trying to move away from cobalt, they are using it because right now they have no choice to get the performance they want. Why would companies be working on new chemistries that are cobalt free if they were not trying to phaze it out or somewhat limit the use of it in their batteries?
I am not denying that NCM811 is the best battery going but you seem to be hanging on the fact I said cobalt will be getting phazed out without any evidence so here you go..
For starters, Great Wall have a prototype SUV that has a 600km range using SVOLT's NMX battery (cobalt free). the battery is 75% nickel. They have tested it thermally and it remains stable, ready for commercialization which you said isn't possible. On the diagram below is emerging chemistries. While they are emerging you can see more chemistries are gaining.
"And remember (and I have this debate with so many punters), what is technically possible isn’t always easy to commercially scale."
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In regards to your statement
"Benchmark Intelligence have some excellent forecasts for all the battery metals. If you check their forecasts, you can see that total demand for all battery metals is going to explode by the end of this decade. If Co was being phased out as per your statement, how can you explain their forecasts - especially with industrial demand expected to remain flat? Coincides with the cobalt price falling 50% in the last year.Completely false. I now see that you are not truly familiar with the cobalt market. The drop in Co prices last year had nothing to do with EV demand for the metal."
Here is why industrial demand is not the only reason why cobalt is flat but will also remain relatively subdued.
The screenshots below are from benchmark intelligence in October last year. In summary they show the shift of market share. As you can see LFP has rapidly increased and NCM has decreased. This is not only due to LFP being in standard vehicles. There is much more to it.
The western world is gobbling up cobalt for NCM batteries because they don't have the same technology to develop LFP batteries the way China has. China with the like of BYD and CATL have developed outstanding LFP batteries that have really narrowed the gap for energy density between LFP and NCM. Once the western world catches up in terms of cell and pack design, they will move the same way - lowering the amount of previously forecast cobalt demand.
No doubt the price will bounce back
but you fail to realize
1. shift in chemistry/cell pack design adopted by western countries who currently do not have the "know-how"
2. Oversupply from now until 2030
3. ESG ramifications demanded by OEM's
4. Huge investment by the chinese in indonesia
"The demand side will always remain a concern for cobalt"
"downward pressure on previous price expectations"
As you can see this is not my personal opinion for cobalt, it is that of benchmark.
Below from there presentation in October you can also see that cobalt supply doesn't have a deficit until 2030 when the share volume of EVs has risen so much that there is finally not enough. But then again this could also be further pushed out depending on emerging chemistries. I would imagine the ESG of dirty congo and indonesian mines will have OEM's push further away.
Indonesia is looking to bring huge amounts of cobalt through chinese investors.
Unlike IGO in the lithium space with their lithium chemical plant blowing out by an astonishing amount in capex, the chinese on the other hand build in less time than previously quoted and on budget. As evidenced by huge lithium player Ganfeng. So there is little risk that it will take considerable time to bring added cobalt supply into the market.
As for your comments on me investing in Nickel and not cobalt... As you can see emerging chemistries, which i agree take considerable time, contain nickel and go cobalt free. It is also an industrial metal yet the China lockdown has not seen nickel smashed in fact its trended up considerably while cobalt has fallen away miserably.
"JRV" It will be Latin America’s only class 1 electrolytic nickel and cobalt refinery. And they are about to expand (almost double) their cobalt refining capacity at Europe’s preeminent cobalt refinery, Kokkola. Why would they be investing all this money if Co was being “phased out”?
Yes it will be the only one until CTM also in Brazil starts producing nickel sulphate from their OWN world class nickel deposit while JRV has to buy 3rd party feed.
JRV will be shipping cobalt all the way from the US to its refinery in Brazil and then again across the world.
Judging by JRV's stock price falling more than 70% in about a year I'd say my research and investing in lithium has paid off and is more than adequate. I do not see how you have such a large holding in JRV and exposure to cobalt but are not in any lithium stocks as they have skyrocketed. Makes no sense if you consider yourself to be up to date on EV related markets and its future.
Atleast we can agree on the future of Copper.
(20min delay)