Here's a little bit of information to touch base on the emerging...

Here's a little bit of information to touch base on the emerging global middle class, and the impact on material consumption;

A lot of this is IMO, but feel free to come to your own conclusions. I've done some very rough maths below.

India's GDP is on track for $2.85 trillion for 2021 and the forecast is $3 trillion for 2022 and $3.45 trillion for 2023.

So what does that mean? It means their economy is booming. This directly feeds into an increase in disposable income.




The forecast for growth in the middle class;


Source for graphs

How does discretionary spending translate to increased copper consumption?

The below is the average consumption by a person in the United States. Currently, the US median income is $31,000 USD. And currently, the median Indian income is $2,000. By 2030 this is expected to grow to $3,700, and possibly to $12,000 by 2040. By 2050, the income could possibly be $53,000.



India's current population is; 1,400,000,000
2030 forecast is 1,500,000,000
2040 forecast is 1,640,000,000.

Whilst this method of calculation isn't accurate due to a number of reasons;
When you consider the current consumption of copper by a U.S citizen to be 12lb/year (without EV ownership, renewable energy, etc.)...
And the U.S population is 329.5m.... In theory the US consumes 3,954,000,000lb/year. This translates to 1,793,504t. The reported statistic is actually ~1,700,000t. Not far off from reality.

Extrapolating the forecasted average Indian income and population of ~2035 (~31k USD/yr + 1,570,000,000 population)...

The 12/lb per citizen consumption, on a similar wage, translates to 8,548,000t of demand by 2035. For comparison, the current consumption is apparently ~700kt. The 2025 forecast is doubled to ~1.4mt.

The current global consumption of copper is 26mt. (2021). The global production is 21.3mt (2021).

If any of the above is remotely accurate... an extra 8mt of copper demand from India alone will have consequences. This doesn't include increased demand through industrialising a nation or a transition to renewable energy and technology.