Goehring and Rozencwajg - The Problems With Cu Supply_May 2021
“I have switched from being a structural copper bear to a structural copper bull.”Leigh Goehring, Barron’s Commodity column May 2001.
Copper has emerged as a leader in this commodity bull market. We are strong believersthat copper prices are heading significantly higher. After bottoming at $1.95 per poundin early 2016, copper prices have more than doubled. Copper equities (as measured bythe COPX ETF) have done even better, rallying over 200% — more than twice theincrease of the S&P 500.
The previous copper bull market took place between 2001 and 2011 and saw prices riseseven-fold: from $0.60 to $4.62 per pound. As shown in the Barron’s quote above, wewholeheartedly embraced that copper bull market and maintained sizable exposurethroughout the rally. The fundamentals today are even more bullish. We would not besurprised to see copper prices again advance a minimum of seven-fold before this bullmarket is over. Using $1.95 as our starting point, we expect copper prices to potentiallypeak near $15 per pound by the latter part of this decade.
[Note - $15/lb.....that's $33,000/t]
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