Copper Price Trends & Market Outlook — Mid‑2025 Update

Latest Price Overview

• As of June 2025, copper’s global benchmark price stood at around USD 9,835/tonne, up approximately 3.2% from May and about 1.9% above year‑ago levels.

• COMEX futures reached a record high of USD 5.22/lb on March 26, then dropped sharply to around USD 4.06/lb by April 8 before rebounding steadily. By July 10, 2025, the price surged to $5.65/lb.

Key Price Patterns (Q2–Q3 2025)

• Q2 2025 saw heightened volatility: prices fluctuated between $4.50–4.80/lb, then accelerated upward in late June.

• Late July futures trading hovered near $5.78/lb, with daily movements of ±1–2% common.

What’s Driving These Trends?

Supply-Demand Imbalance

Refined copper production grew around 3.2% in 2024–2025, led by increases in China, Peru, and the DRC, while Chilean production dipped due to maintenance. Mining growth lagged behind refined output, straining the supply chain.

Tariffs & Policy Moves

A proposed 50% tariff on copper imports (effective August 2025) drove futures to peak levels, pushed U.S. premiums over LME pricing to unprecedented levels, and sparked massive shipping arbitrage activity.

Chinese Demand Rebound

Stronger consumer and industrial activity in China has lifted sentiment across base metal markets, including copper, despite global geopolitical uncertainties.

Corporate Signals

Freeport‑McMoRan, one of the largest U.S. producers, reported steep quarterly earnings growth as price increases offset falling production. Executives expect significant windfall gains if the tariffs hold.

Chile revised its copper forecast slightly upward to $4.28/lb in response to Collahuasi production shortfalls and market tightness.

Forecast Check

	Source	2025 Forecast (USD/tonne)
1	Goldman Sachs	~10,160
2	Morgan Stanley	~9,500
3	Chile Mining Assoc	~9,260–9,920
4	CitiGroup	~8,750
5	RBC / BMO	~8,800

Most projections expect copper prices to remain elevated through 2025 due to infrastructure demand, energy transitions, and constrained new mining supply.

Forum Takeaways & Trade Signals

• Volatility ahead: Breakouts in COMEX futures above $5.65/lb may drive bullish momentum, but LME prices may lag as contango effects persist.

• Policy risk: Tariffs introduce uncertainty around trade flows and inventory dynamics.

• Long-term tailwinds: Renewables, EV infrastructure, and data center expansion support copper demand despite muted supply growth.

• Emerging markets: India, Southeast Asia, and China remain critical demand drivers.

Summary:

Copper prices in mid‑2025 are marked by rising momentum, record futures, trade policy shocks, and solid industrial demand. Pricing between USD 5.50–5.80/lb (or around USD 9,800/t) reflects this blend of fundamentals and market speculation. While near-term volatility is high, structural trends support a bullish mid‑term outlook.