Gee, I have been away for a bit but there has been some good commentary! Good to see Renegade and Paul100 dishing out well researched and considered opinions. Fantastic.
Just a few thoughts from me, no where as rigourously backed up as some of the previous posts. Segura, I don't think that PNA's MD meant equity investors when he mentioned investors - it was more in the context of a refinancing of the GSJBW debt. A parsing of the release looks to me time to do two things: 1. give a better face on the revenue/expense ratio for investors in terms of c/lb etc 2. prepare the market for a partial rollover and a partial refinance of the GSJBW debt.
Yes, a bit of window dressing but pretty good release. It is obvious though that they have been discussing this with GSJBW for a while and they are trying to refi. Desperately? Maybe not, but definately refinancing. March is the deadline and then if there is no refi, they have 90 days to default probably so the dates make sense.
Is PNA over or under valued? Hard question isn't it. I think they have done a great job but I fear the cycle is now against them and the overshoot in prices on the way down will squeeze them no matter the quality of management or minerals.
February will be key as they will have to announce what will happen to the GSJBW facility. Those who say it wont happen because GSJBW have equity need to look how underwater those options are. Those who say that $80m is a small amount, need to see that the world of credit has changed enormously.
If the facility was from a corporate (i.e RIO or BHP) then we would be fine. But Bankers are acting like cornered animals right now - no reasonablness or courtesy. I would not bet on the GSJBW facility rolling over at all. Bankers don't bet on the future, they charge interest. Bankers are not investors, even the most magnanimous.
Just my opinion.
PNA Price at posting:
8.4¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Not Held
