copper,silver up 3% but..., page-3

Minor border problem in news with rebels taking lives in neighbouring country is a reminder of reason for conservative valuation of Anvil.
And perhaps a minor sell off now?

Institutions obviously value Anvil based on reported profits - discounted.
The "show me the money" then I will pay more!--- approach that have put forward a number of times.

It follows that increased profits after Stage 2 is successfully ramped up - reported increased profits that is - will be the next stimulus.
That is the main reason that January 05 has been my "red letter" date (time) for some time now.
When reported profits are likely to be at least double past quarterly reports.

Double profits?
Double share price?
Probably?
Certainly well over 60 cents share price on profit basis alone is reasonable expectation. Early 05.
But not until profit is booked.
Note that institutions anticipate profitable quarters so share price may move before quarterly report confirms increased profit.

Another major factor is Gecamine.
Assuming that Gecamine agreement will happen and happen soon - institutions will be standing aside to some extent due to uncertainty.
The uncertainty of finacial implication for Anvil.
Such as how much funding needs to be raised - How much will shares be diluted - how will the money be raised.

Bill Turner indicated a rights issue I believe.
Seems institution is having an each way bet - by holding Anvil share price down (the big sell order at 40 cents and dumping at lesser price).

If the situation arises where allocation to Canadian institution/s is used to raise finance, institutions will point to recent share price - below 40 cents - and insist on a discount accordingly.
An allocation of below - but close to - 35 cents might be a compromise.
As there has not been an overwhelming take up of Anvil shares in Canada Bill does not hold all the aces!

Once again assuming Gecamine goes ahead and financing is satifactorily in place another re-rating of Anvil share price is a reasonable expectation.

Miningnut - Stone Pony - Flats could probably provide a possible range of potential profits post Gecamine production. May be? But t'would be difficult - not knowing total number of post financing Anvil shares for example.
But should Gecamines treble present profits a share price of more than $1.20 seems reasonable? Once profits are actual that is!

Now Kapulo is I believe a commercial resource.
An additional mine to take up Kapulo resource once producing a profit would push share price.

As would commercial deposits closer to Dikulushi soon to be explored - and proof of increased depth of Dikulushi after drilling too. The latter to a lesser extent as increases mine life - not yearly profits.

Those more knowledgable will point to prospective territory held by Anvil outside Congo - potential gold areas - Vietnam areas already superficially explored but now on hold - etc.
But that is some time away.

The calibre of Anvil management is the trump card in all this.

Those happy to wait up to six months will be rewarded.
Those holding longer term will reap greater benefits.
That's how I see it anyhow!

The decision is yours.
The responsibility is yours.

Cheers

NT