LME copper in stratosphere, but wary of correction Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:39 AM ET Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints | RSS Top News Debris may have hit space shuttle's wing
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By Jae Hur
SINGAPORE, July 29 (Reuters) - Copper prices trimmed early gains in Asia on Friday after touching the previous day's record high, but traders said the market may see a correction as high prices deter consumer buying.
After trading as high as $3,545/$3,550 a tonne, the highest ever, copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was unchanged from Thursday's London close at $3,525/$3,530 by 0447 GMT.
"We may see another spike briefly from these levels but the market can not avoid correction in the very short term," a trader in Tokyo said. "Basically, the market was very thin."
Copper, used in electric cables, water pipes and computer chips, has gained about 20 percent since early this year and is more than double from early 2003 after years of under-investment in new mining projects and strong demand.
As with many other commodities and energy, copper's runaway price has been driven by red-hot demand from a rapidly industrialising China, leading to a depletion of stocks worldwide at a time of tight supplies.
LME copper stocks rose by 1,000 tonnes on Thursday to 27,550, but the level is equivalent to just over half the world's daily consumption. A week ago the stocks fell to a 31-year low of 25,525 tonnes.
Large speculative investment funds have also been a key driver in the bull run, forcing players with large short positions to cover their positions and prompting almost daily rallies to record levels.
STOCKS, OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS
Another trader said any significant rise in exchange stocks would trigger liquidation with the market being overbought.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index stood at 82.78 percent on Thursday, up from 77.76 percent on Wednesday and 64.58 percent a week ago. The market views an RSI of 30 or less as oversold and 70 or more as overbought.
Thursday's RSI level was the highest since October 8, days before funds slashed copper prices by about 13 percent from then a multi-year peak of $3,175. The correction hurt stock market prices of mining companies around the world, including BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) and Rio Tinto (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research).
The market, however, is still concerned about the lack of supply. Asarco, the U.S. copper miner owned by Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB.MX: Quote, Profile, Research), delayed negotiations with the union to end its strike. Chile, the world's biggest copper miner, said it produced 8.4 percent less copper in June than in did in the same month last year.
The world's No. 2 copper producer, Phelps Dodge Corp., (PD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) told analysts on Thursday it was forecasting a shortfall of 150,000 tonnes this year, and a strong average copper price of $1.55 per pound for the third quarter, due to critically low inventory levels.
In Shanghai, copper futures tracked LME copper moves. The most active October contract ended the morning session at 34,390 yuan ($4,240) a tonne, up 30 yuan from the settlement on Thursday.
Other metals were mixed, with aluminium down $2 at $1,862/$1,865.
Zinc edged up to $1,260/$1,265 from $1,258 and tin slipped to $6,925/$7,025 against $6,950, while lead was at $854/$859 versus $854.5.
Nickel was at $14,350/$14,450 versus $14,400. ($1=8.11 Yuan)
http://www.basemetals.com/
NCM & JBM looking good in the long term,
Plenty of others too!!!!!,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Kitco is mixed,
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