Agau That is similar to what I read earlier and didnt want to...

Agau

That is similar to what I read earlier and didnt want to post due to creibility issues - tried to find it since but couldnt, so thanx for posting

Reality is - there are bigger forces at play than us local yokels and best we can do is try to fathom to some degree what the market makers are doing - we cant influence it - like I have said before with CMR - they cant influence what metal prices or exchange rates - they will be what they will be - the best we can hope for is to try to interpret what the big players are trying to achieve and position ourselves accordingly

We are not insiders - if it were footy our position would be left -right-out! So best we can do is try to figure out what the big end of town is trying to achieve (China - lower prices)and position ourselves accordingly

That means trying to fathom plenty of different scenarios - many of which will be wrong - but just like in charting or anything else - one has to hypothesise - explore many different possibles and finally settle on one and try to position oneself with that thought in mind - and when proved wrong - act accordingly - but the smoke and mirrors scenario sees to be gaining some momentum and validity

Particularly since china is now moving to try to renegotiate prices to lower levels at least with iron ore - but is their only interst iron ore - of course not - so if they are doing it wwith iron ore - one must then ask are theyh doing it with other commodities also - the answer to that should be plain and for my mind it screams

BUY STRAW HATS IN WINTER

I know Oly has said it with pivots etc - one needs to be proactivE rather than reactive - the market is supposed to be forward thinking and price in what it thinks will happpen in the neaR future -

I am sure the smart money is forward thinking ie proactive as opposed to reactive and is positioning itself for what will happen in the nearer term - but I think with all the doom and gloom - the retail level investor is scared and therefore acting reacivly - I know I am! sO tonight I am starting to think - why am I doing that - I should maybe be buying straw hats in winter

There seems to be stuff all to trade atm - saw someone put forward a reasonable plan for very short term trading last few days - buy the red and sell the green - and that probably works if looking only for action from one day to the next but if taking a longer term view one has to be looking at the strw hats in winter scenario.

And with all the smoke and mirrors at play atm - one has to start thinking that long term - respurces stox are a buy - not explprers - not fu;;y priced producers with PEs of 10 - 12 or more - but undervalued emerging near term producers -

Why would china be trying so hard to rengotitate contracts now - wht's the hurry = why not wait untill real and demonstrable lack of demand forces the producers to come to the table and renegotiate prices just to shift their product - The more I think about it the more I am convinced - the buyer is moving first because he knows he has a limited time in which to try to bluff and play his best hand. If the downturn was legit - surely he would wait untill it is beyond doubt that it is a buyers market but he is not - he is instead moving early - why - because he knows he has contrived and environment in which he has alimited time to make people believe it is a buyers market and if he doesnt move now - we will all see it is just aa bluff and reality is - its a sellers market

For me - I am largely on the sideline atm - 90% cash - unfortunatley that 90% is not what it was some time ago lol
and the main degrader of that cash has been CMR - AGAIN!!!!

What can I say - i didnt call their bluff - I folded

Time to call thier bluff I suspect

Disclaimer - it may be weeks away or days away - I dunno - but do they need the metals this second - no I dont think so - I reckon they have a cpl of months up thier sleeve - and if I were looking to buy BHP I would call their bluff and wait it out - but with an oversold mob like CMR that is as we speak becomming a producer and is grossly undervalued and oversold - do I think time is on my side - probably not!

But then again - as usual - yep I been at the pub - exploring these issues and possibilites at length - but I got the wobbly boot on again- so I may have a very differnt thinking in the morning - possibility exists even that I may not remeber wht I tyoed tonight - wouldnt be the first time I have logged onto HC in the morning thinking - Oh God - what the hell did I say last night lol

So take it all with a grain of salt - resarch it - test it - hypothesise it - try to break it - and then tell us what you think - coz to be hinest - its almost as exciting when I find myself wrong as when I find myself right.

I might be a bit wierd but while there is no doubt I feel great exilleration if I find that Im right - funny enough - I get a similar level of excitminet when shown to be wrong - coz it means the game is still in play

Sort of like a cross word - when I get it out I sort of feel dissapointed - its an anticlimax -

But if I cant get it out I keep comming back to it - trying figure it out and if I cant - I sort of feel more enthused do it -

never managed to get a Rubix cube out but if I did I think I would throw it against the wall in disgust and dissapointment

Doesnt get ya rich tho - thats the unfortunate thing - If I figured it out at $6 I'd have been fine and you can bet ya golies Id be revisiting it again now and buying six tim what I had - God Im dumb!