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World refined copper market in 69,000 mt deficit in May: ICSG


London (Platts)--21Aug2014/958 am EDT/1358 GMT


The refined copper market balance for May, excluding any adjustment for changes in China's bonded stocks, showed an apparent production deficit of 69,000 mt, according to figures released Wednesday by the International Copper Study Group.

The refined copper balance for the first five months of 2014, including revisions to data previously presented, indicates a production deficit of 466,000 mt, compared with a production surplus of 251,000 mt in the same period of 2013, the ICSG said.

Based on the average of stock estimates provided by independent consultants, Chinese bonded stocks increased by around 160,000 mt in the first five months of 2014 from the year-end 2013 level, having declined by around 315,000 mt in the same period of 2013, the ICSG said.

In the first five months of 2014, the world refined copper balance adjusted for Chinese bonded stock changes indicates a deficit of around 305,000 mt compared to a deficit of around 65,000 mt in the first five months of 2013, it added.
In the first five months of 2014, world usage is estimated to have increased by around 15.5% compared with that in the same period of 2013, "supported by strong apparent demand in China," the ICSG said.

Chinese apparent demand increased by 29% (995,000 mt) based on a 65% increase in net imports of refined copper from the low net import level in the first five months of 2013 and consequent lower apparent usage.

Excluding China, world usage increased by around 6%, supported mainly by apparent usage growth of 18% in the EU and 13% in Japan, the group said. it added, however, that "it should be noted that comparative usage in the first five months of 2013 was 8% lower in the EU and 5% lower in Japan than in the first five months of 2012."

World refined production is estimated to have increased by 7% (570,000 mt) in the first five months of 2014 compared with refined production in the same period of 2013, with primary production up by 6.5% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 7%.

"The main contributor to growth was China (up 15.5%, 390,000 mt), followed by India, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United States and Japan, where aggregated production increased by 14% (215,000 mt)," the ICSG said. Output in Chile, the second-biggest world refined copper producer, declined by 4%.

On a regional basis, refined production is estimated to have increased in Africa (13%), North America (8%), Asia (11%), Europe (2%) and Oceania (4%) and to have declined in South America (minus 2%).

The average world refinery capacity utilization rate for the first five months of 2014 was 79.6%, up from 78.1% in the same period of 2013.

World mine production is estimated to have increased by around 5% (352,000 mt) in the first five months of 2014 compared with mine production in the same period of 2013, with concentrate output up by 6% and production via solvent extraction-electrowinning rising 1%.

"With the exception of Indonesia (minus 10%) where production remained constrained by the ban on concentrates exports, all of the other major copper-mine producing countries had greater output," the ICSG said, noting that production in Chile, Peru and the US increased by an aggregated 6% (200,000 mt).

On a regional basis, production in the first five months of 2014 rose by 12% in Africa, 4% in South America and 12% in North America and remained essentially unchanged in Asia, Europe and Oceania, while the average world mine capacity utilization rate for the first five months of 2014 remained practically unchanged compared with that in the same period of 2013.

--Andy Blamey, [email protected]
--Edited by Maurice Geller, [email protected]