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16/10/17

08:31

Post #: 27921810
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Originally posted by MagicSeven ↑

Ok below I will try to do a prediction too.. but this is just a worse scenario (as we get it so far from tgs) because they should have to produce >8.1kt per Quarter (32.5kt/yr) with their expansion ..

So still a very bad scenario (nearly just the half of expansionrate!) for Q3.17:

Production: <4.5kt
AISC: >$2.15-2.25
CP: <$2.85

But I think we are still too optimistic with that bad scenario.. because if they would reach that, they should have +5.5mn operating profit (cash) for that quarter (before interests, depreciation and tax).. and so why they would still need an 18mn bridge?

They had 4.6mn cash in Q2.17 plus and let's say about 5.5mn cash for q3.17 minus some payments and bank-interests of about 3mn for q3.17.. so they should have a total of ~7.1mn cash at end of 3rd quarter..

They also said, they mb will use 3rd party material to produce c-cathode.. So this should be a profitable 4th quarter if they wouldn't have all the other mining costs..

But maybe we see a much worser scenario for this 3rd quarter (and outlook) and that's why they raised the 18mn bridge for LOM AND REPAIRS.. if they failed with their new pump system etc..:

Worst scenario for q3.17 (failed repairs):

Production: 3.5kt
AISC: $2.45-2.75
CP: $2.85

And don't forget.. the rainy season is coming soon.. also we will have the drc president's election 2017/18..

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Whilst it is in suspension, what will be, will be!

You are just torturing yourself in the meantime.

TGS Price at posting: 4.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Copper, page-112

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