Corn Market Recap for 3/31/2006 May Corn finished up 8 1/4 at 236, 7 off the high and 1 up from the low. December Corn closed up 8 at 268. This was 1 up from the low and 2 off the high.
A surge in fund trader buying thought to be near 20,000 contracts (some estimates as high as 35,000 contracts) into the mid-session supported solid gains in the corn market with new crop December corn gapping into new contract highs. The USDA pegged planted acreage at just 78.02 million acres, the lowest since 2001 and well below trade expectations at 80.5 million acres (range 80.09 to 81.0). Last year's plantings were 81.8 million acres. March 1st stocks were pegged at 6.987 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate of 6.985 billion bushels (range 6.942-7.057) and compared with 6.756 billion last year. If the new plantings estimate is transferred into the supply/demand outlook for the coming year, the market is likely to see a significant decline in ending stocks. Assuming a demand base of 11.495 billion bushels and a trend line yield of 147.7 bushels per acre, the ending stocks estimate for the 2006/2007 season falls to near 1.08 billion bushels as compared with 2.351 billion this year. The stocks/usage ratio would come in near 9.4% vs. 21.6% this season, which would match the 2003/2004 season and would be only the third time in the past 31 years it fell below 10%. If yield comes in 10% below trend at 132.9 bu/acre, ending stocks would drop to near zero, and a yield of 10% above trend at 162.5 bu/acre would leave ending stocks near 2.1 billion bushels, still down on the year. Taiwan bought 23,000 tonnes of US corn overnight.
May Rice finished up 0.2 at 8.56, 0.07 off the high and 0.1 up from the low.
