... okay, it's April 18 and most guys would like to have more corn planted than they've put in the ground.
Is it getting late? Well... a little. USDA says as of April 16, 9% of the U.S. corn crop is planted... compared to 13% last year and a five-year average planting pace of 10%. But, it's a combination of things making 2006 feel late. Prior to the 2005 planting season, growers were able to do a lot of field prep in the fall of 2004 -- that allowed for a very early start when April temps warmed up really fast and April rains were few -- especially in Illinois. That allowed growers there to put the crop in at a record-quick pace. Last fall, growers could have put on all kinds of nitrogen to get ready for the 2006 planting season, but high prices and the "hope" for lower spring N prices meant a lot of growers put off fall field work until this spring. So... there's more work to do this spring to get the ground ready for seed.
Okay... and then there's the forecast. After all the drought talk earlier this year, the rain we've received in April has some growers wishing for a two- or three-week "drought" to give them a chance to get caught up and to get a really good start on planting. But, the forecast is wet. So, even though it's only April 18... most guys are looking at only a day or two suitable for field work in the next week. That's really starting to make it feel like it's already May. That's a big reason it's starting to fell "late."
So... will it impact the corn market? Probably. Not because we're threatening the plant's ability to make yield, but because the longer it takes to get corn planted, the less likely it is that some of those acres in the Midwest that are expected to be planted to soybeans will work their way back into corn production.
