personally, I think we will probably know in 3 months time.
here is the latest stats from a source outside China.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/The condition of patients, according to the World Health Organization (Feb. 7 press conference) and based on 17,000 cases in China, are:
- 82% mild
- 15% severe
- 3% critical
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/Novel Coronavirus Mortality Rate, as discussed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China (notes, stats from China)
Asked at apress conference on February 4what the current mortality rate (orcase fatality rate,CFR) is, an official with China NHS said that[7]:
- The formula they are using is: cumulativecurrent total deaths / current confirmed cases. So, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3 (note the date here), the formula used was 425/20,438.
- Based on this figure, the national mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases.
- There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
- 97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
- Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
- Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1% (note, Wuhan is a city inside Hubei Province).
- Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
- Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%. And further note, the fatality rate outside China is 0.6%.
- Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
- Most of the cases are still mild cases, so there is no need to panic.
- Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHS official replied it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent. And this explains why the cases from Wuhan is so high when compared to the rest of China and around the world, IMHO.
- National mortality rate is basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.
- Front the analysis of death cases, it emerges that it is mainlymale, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly,more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases,
The above data shows outside Hubei, where Wuhan is located, the death rates are low.
I guess its up to people to draw their own conclusion.
