The scale and impact of the Italian outbreak has stunned the world. The country has been shut down under emergency measures not seen since World War II. Its economy has been paralysed. Anyone who goes outside is being stopped by police or the military and asked to produce evidence about why they are there. Total infections have now surpassed 15,000 and more than than 1000 people have died in a fortnight.
Many European leaders mistakenly believed the situation could be contained. But something snapped this week and what is now abundantly clear is that Italy is no outlier - it is merely a frontrunner.
On current trajectories Germany, France, Spain, Britain, Sweden, Belgium, Norway and Switzerland will all soon record the same high number of infections as Italy. In Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands, France, Austria, Sweden, Greece, Spain and Britain, the total number of cases has been roughly doubling every two days as community transmission takes hold.
Most of the worst-affected European nations are now about 10 days away from catching up to Italy's current position, but some have been gifted as many as three to four weeks to prepare for the deluge.
Leaders are now grappling with how to use that time. School and university closures have been popular, so too bans on mass gatherings. Some countries - such as the Czech Republic - have banned flights from certain parts of Europe, and Austria isn't letting people from Italy over the border without a doctor's certificate. In Belgium, all restaurants, bars and gyms have been ordered to close.
