@plough Yes there seem to be quite a few people that don't understand exponential growth in numbers that the virus is currently having world wide.
Here in Australia the rate of increased spread has accelerated, up 31% just yesterday. If we keep increasing the spread, which will happen no matter what politicians do today, (there is a lag of 10-14 days from a measure until it kicks in with the numbers), we will be doubling cases in under 3 days!!
Their inaction and woeful response so far means they are always behind the spread of this disease, so far IMHO about a month behind where they should be, which people in this country will pay for with their lives.
Draconian international traveller restrictions a month ago, not last Sunday would have helped incredibly, but now the numbers are starting to get too high to keep up with contact tracing, whereas action a month ago would have made that much easier.
They were too worried about the effect on the economy, yet the same major downturn is happening anyway!! This seems to be a major point the politicians can't grasp.
People are smart, so when the virus gets too close to home, even the biggest deniers of problems we have on this forum will get it and change behavior and spending habit.
Economists seem to be worried about going into a recession, personally I think that is, and has been a given for weeks. They should be looking at how to stop a major depression!!
I have had a quick look at 'economic modelling of a pandemic' and don't seem to have found anything remotely reliable for our current situation. The models are usually with assumptions like .........
"our model assumes the risk of pandemic events this century will be broadly the same as they were in the 20th century"
From ....
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK368393/
This event is nothing like any of last century especially as the world was an entirely different place in 1918..
