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what happens next - good question. chinas economy has shut down....

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bruceyg

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16/02/20

23:24

Post #: 42964993
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Originally posted by bacci ↑

I am not a medical specialist but what will happen next seems to be a matter of common sense;

1) The genie is out of the bottle. One traveler on the Diamond Princess spread the disease to 285 people in the closest monitored example of how this spreads. There was an infected traveler on the Westerdam ship, the other passengers are now flying all over the world. The Chinese haven't been able to contain it with draconian measures, western liberal and impoverished third world countries have no chance.

2) ICUs of first world countries are matched to normal demand. They won't be able to cope with this.

3) Authorities will change the rhetoric from trying to control the spread to accepting the inevitable and dealing with the consequences.

4) The scale of loss of life will depend upon how quickly a vaccine is developed and how well people reduce spread by staying home.

Travel should be minimised until a vaccine is developed. Tourism, olympics, public meetings etc should be postponed.

bacci

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what happens next - good question.

chinas economy has shut down. on top of just signing a trade deal. there are many expos that have decided to not go ahead - Barcelona for one

plus I believe Wuhan is the oil hub for china - and chinas oil demand has dropped 20% - which means big trouble for iran as well.
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