Corona Virus, page-5

Hebei Provence (the epicenter of the CV) is one of the largest steel producers in China and in the short term steel production/iron ore consumption will fall off a cliff. Wider economic weakness with producers/consumers paralyzed and logistics chains with workers disrupted from returning to work and consumers too scared to go out and spend all over China until the risk of the virus has completely gone. Perhaps when a vaccine has been developed and widely distributed things will return to normal. That is probably 3-4 months away. The impact on overall growth will be large for at least a few quarters.

Medium term there may be some stimulus by the Chinese government however to support growth/bail out indebted companies to prevent contagion however they have been incrementally less inclined to do so recently to keep their debt levels under control. In the meantime, Vale will be brining back additional volumes which will be certain to push the iron ore market to surplus in the medium term.

This was a highly unexpected disruption with significant uncertainly on the impact/duration still remaining.