The wheel is spinning too fast for me to predict where it may stop. A key variable is pandemic duration. Market punters initially had the foolish idea that it may last for a quarter, then 2 quarters and now 3 however some key experts are suggesting that 2 years of interruption may be possible.
Then there is the issue of perspective. Some commentators only have a G7+ perspective. Others have a G20 perspective. Very few have a global perspective. With developed economies directly paying their citizens out of thin air there has to be an inflationary impact. A huge impact. But what they do on domestic fiscal and monetary fronts is only domestic tinkering in the context of global catastrophe.
Global debts being too large for creditors to have any realistic hope of payback, regardless of what moratoriums are enacted.
And of course overlayed on all of this is a fractured geopolitical situation and a polarisation of domestic politics in many G20 economies. The presence of a Clown Car US Administration adds petrol to the global fire.
One certainty is that our life perspectives will change radically over the next 2 years. I'm not talking about political choices.
