Victorian authorities are doing now what they needed to be do 2 weeks ago. My post at the top of this thread refers.
2 weeks late is too little too late. 2 weeks ago a much shorter lockdown would have been possible.
Unless everyone heading to work gets a weekly COVID test quarantine that is limited to set zones CANNOT WORK.
Authorities filter their responses through a range of stakeholders and a few experts. The stakeholders invariably cause critical delay and experts they hire are sometimes blind to what other experts say.
A simple mathematical model with every member of not so random number generator incorporated to the model for every individual would show what will happen. In plain speak there will be enough infected individuals evading detection to transport the crisis across the State and into the rest of Australia.
As for those who refuse tests I know we can't flog these evil bastards to death however tempting that may be. We can and should cease the social security payments of this evil filth or add a very significant additional Medicare surcharge to their tax bills (if they are earning a reasonable income) . If I were running this show my gloves would be off.
Look at what happened in the US. Localised lockdowns flatten curves but don't lead to elimination. Elimination is my goal. Elimination is still within reach.
Who knows. The level of spread form any particular individual is highly variable and we could be lucky. Or we could be unlucky.
