A very timely research papers. I have included the highlights below, you can read the entire research paper here.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Coronavirus_Impact_012820.pdf
Harvard-educated Chinese economist & former principal for the Carlyle Group in its hedge fund arm in New York City, Victor Shih, we believe the market is grossly underestimating the potential negative knock-on effects from the coronavirus outbreak in China.
the coronavirus pandemic is already larger, in just roughly one week's time,than the SARS pandemic was over the entirety of its lifecycle
the coronavirus outbreak will likely be much worse than the SARSpandemic given SARS was contained to 3 provinces (Guangdoung, Hong Kong, &Beijing), while the coronavirus has already spread to 25 provinces [link]) - air travelwithin China is ~8x more today vs. where it was during the SARS outbreak. In short, inMr. Shih's view, based on his work suggesting "hundreds of thousands" of potentiallyinfected Wuhan residents left for Shanghai & Guangdong, the number of cases beingreported in these economically important provinces (66 and 207, respectively) arelikely "grossly" understated, suggesting the impact to growth, globally, will be muchworse than currently implied by market valuations.
Coronavirus
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