Coronavirus

Originally posted by pierogi: ↑

I clicked the link. Seems quite a relevant article in light of what is now occurring. Attacking the ACE2 receptors and not reponding to SARS treatments. I'll leave it to the experts but it raises a lot of questions.

It was about,
"a study on his team’s efforts to engineer a virus with the surface protein of the SHC014 coronavirus, found in horseshoe bats in China, and the backbone of one that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in mice. The hybrid virus could infect human airway cells and caused disease in mice, according to the team’s results, which were published in Nature Medicine.
The results demonstrate the ability of the SHC014 surface protein to bind and infect human cells, validating concerns that this virus—or other coronaviruses found in bat species—may be capable of making the leap to people without first evolving in an intermediate host, Nature reported. They also reignite a debate about whether that information justifies the risk of such work, known as gain-of-function research. “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,”

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"The 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 has at least 79.5% similarity in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV..." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0148-0

The similarity of covid-19 to previous cov virus forms means that there are dissimilarities present in covid-19. This new strain is presenting with new properties. This paper here linked discusses modelling of transmissibility, with variations to determine the likely pattern of the spread of the infection.

In discussing the quarantine of Wuhan "We estimated the number of infections using SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model under two assumptions of R_t (R_t maintaining to be >1 or R_t gradually decreasing to <1) in the purpose of depicting various possible epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Two estimations provide an approach for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China, depending on whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020. Assuming the current control measures were ineffective and insufficient, the estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without a peak. On the other hand, assuming the current control measures were effective and sufficient, the estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February 2020."

"However, as mentioned by WHO in the statement on 30 January, “it is still possible to interrupt virus spread, provided that countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social-distancing measures commensurate with the risk.”⁸ Responding to the outbreak, China has taken a series of unprecedentedly strict measures regardless of economic losses, including daily contact with WHO and comprehensive multi-sectoral approaches to fight against the virus and prevent further spread, showing the sense of responsibility of China to its citizens and the whole world. Epidemic information has been released in an open, transparent, responsible, and timely manner home and abroad. Cooperation has been established with other countries and international organizations. These measures have won full recognition of the international community, including WHO. "

At this point I'll cut the science part and loosely translate that the success of Chinese authorities in containing the transmission of the virus. Due to such methods its expected the rate of infection will likely decline from late Feb. The report was published 24/02.

If other nations which have identified cases of covid-19 infection quickly establish similar methods of containment the rate of infection should conceivably follow a similar course.

However, "the epidemic trend shows great difference between Wuhan and Hubei Province and regions in mainland China outside Hubei Province according to the NHC reported data. It is thus inappropriate to generalize the estimations in Wuhan to regions in mainland China outside Hubei Province. The dynamics model for the other locations in mainland China remains to be developed and specific parameters need to be redefined. Lastly, we do not provide model fit information in the current study. SEIR model is a prediction model forecasting the number of infections in the future. The data corresponding to actual situation in the future cannot be determined and this makes model fitting almost impossible during the outbreak. We would carry out model fitting according to the real data in pace with more information and knowledge about the characteristics of COVID-19 and the epidemics in the future."

It will be important for other nations to act quickly wherever covid-19 infections are found. Aus has not done this with a new case diagnosed yesterday in Gold Coast community and another acquired through community transfer.

Therefore we might expect a growth rate similar to Wuhan, Dec 1 to dec 14, over coming weeks.

Not a good outlook.

Scott.