Hi Renesanomally69,
Thanks for your post. I have also seen similar assessments by numerous other medical journals, some as low as 0.6%. On the flipside I have also seen assessments that are higher than I posted previously and because of the huge variations in forecasting this was one of the reasons why I decided to do a little of my own research.
The figures from the link i gave on my post pretty much align with those given on numerous other websites like news.com.au, AFR, Guardian, Reuters etc etc. None of the medical associations, Governments or any others are querying or disputing these figures, in fact a number of health authorities including WHO and our own health authorities confirm the figures and utilise these figures.
What Im totally confused about in regards to this virus is how we can have such discrepancies between various medical authorities on the actual mortality rate when it simply comes down to basic maths...
You don't need a degree to work out a percentage rate when you have three sets of numbers involved. One constant that I have seen in almost all of the modelling to date so far from the various medical journals and authorities is they have decided to take a particular cross section of an area ( like a town, province or country ) or as above in your post they have based it on 1099 patients in 500 of china's hospitals -- why base your figures on a town, country or province? Why take a cross section of only 1099 patients from just 500 chinese hospitals? Basic science dictates the greater the sample the more accurate the results --- why not take the entire figures from everywhere? It's a rhetorical question so not directed at you Renesanomally69 but you can see how these varying methods just confuses the public.
As we have seen the governments and medical authorities are doing their utmost to ensure fear and panic does not set in so if the figures for some reason are not correct surely they would be very quick to dispute or force the news outlets to redact the information?
So again, without any other further information, the figures including mortality rate that i posted seem to be correct and accurate. Im happy for anyone to correct the maths involved or to point me to any other website that calculates the total infections, deaths and mortality rate...in fact I would have to say I would find it absolutely fantastic if someone could please find errors in my calculations because as it stands I can honestly say I don't look forward to how this may pan out...
A lot of people don't realise that there are already 3-4 corona virus flu's out there that we get the standard flu shot for already, And yes, I do agree that eventually Covid-19 will eventually just become a standard common flu. However, it's the initial phase of the virus, prior to our immune systems becoming resistant to it and prior to a vaccine being created that is the danger period. The second problem, which has been pointed out by numerous medical authorities is the potential for it to mutate and hence the reason the fear of it being transmitted into third world countries. The more people it infects the higher the likelihood of it mutating.
The Spanish Flu is an example of a mutation. It came in two waves as per the below extract:The first wave of the 1918 pandemic occurred in the spring and was generally mild. The sick, who experienced such typical flu symptoms as chills, fever and fatigue, usually recovered after several days, and the number of reported deaths was low.
However, a second, highly contagious wave of influenza appeared with a vengeance in the fall of that same year. Victims died within hours or days of developing symptoms, their skin turning blue and their lungs filling with fluid that caused them to suffocate. In just one year, 1918, the average life expectancy in America plummeted by a dozen years.
As you can see, from a medical perspective, the fear of this flu mutating possibly outweighs the current fear of how it will spread based on its current form. Now Im just giving you an example of a mutated flu, not trying to scare people into thinking this type of scenario will come into fruition, so to curb the tin hats wearers out there from turning this into a panic fest, in reality the chances of it forming into something of this magnitude is very very remote.
