PLL

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11.0¢ piedmont lithium inc.

Personally I think there are far better ways to get an...

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dawgfather

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26/06/24

13:11

Post #: 74494260
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Originally posted by WhatsTheTip: ↑

My preference is also for 100% control but sometimes events don't unfold that way. The biggest and arguably the best lithium operation around is Greenbushes and its a multi-way JV. Piedmont's priority has been around controlling the ore. They didn't need shareholdings in SYA or Atlantic to do that so the shareholdings were sold. Over time some of the JV holdings may disappear if the offtake contract is strong enough.

Supply is meeting demand. IMO there is no serious over-supply. If there was serious over-supply then the various auctions of additional material being undertaken would not be generating US$1,000+ bids. If there was serious over-supply it would be pushing down prices to the point where many were losing money, not just a few. The last cycle showed that point was ~US$400/t so adding a bit for inflation US$500/t or US$600/t for SC6 is indicative of serious over supply. Prices are nearly double that. If there was serious over supply, production of SC5.2 type volumes would disappear because the hydroxide converters would say if you want me to buy your product, ship me SC6 because that's the easiest product for me to work with. Producers like MinRes working with high Iron deposits would be struggling to sell their product because hydroxide converters prefer low iron Spod.

There might be mild over supply but that in itself is interesting in itself given the need to absorb supply from Sigma, NAL, Arcadia, Core (although that's stopping soon), PLS expansions and other expansions, and Mt Holland (who are shipping concentrate). Past estimates have put annual demand growth at 200-300 LCE / year. KV operating at 80% recovery and 3Mt throughput is 83kt LCE/yr. KV is perhaps 3-5 months world demand growth. Goulamina is less than that as a 2.4Mt operation. If world demand is growing at 200-300ktpa then a resolution of tight supply may be far earlier than some of the commentary circulating. If indeed that is the case keeping NAL running if getting closer to cash break-even would be sensible.

Piedmont and Atlantic are almost uniquely positioned within the lithium space as one of the few companies looking to place a meaningful package of yet to start up ore into the market place. This will have provided them far better visibility of future demand than joe public will ever see.

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Personally I think there are far better ways to get an investment exposure to lithium, than through PLL. If NAL goes into C&M (which it should be already IMO), what happens to PLL? If someone thinks A11/Ewoyaa is a good lithium mine - why wouldn't they just just invest in A11.

The other thing that's concerning to me is the BOD. It's a bunch of McKinsey consultants and Wall Street bankers.

PLL Price at posting: 13.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 11.0¢		Change -0.005(4.35%)		Mkt cap ! $45.00M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
11.5¢	11.5¢	10.5¢	$318.4K	2.893M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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