It would be of interest that a well informed poster on the LSE board Tomcoves (who "holds north of 1m shares") received email reply from KC yesterday regarding the timeline and posted
KC replied to my email advising that there appears to be some confusion in the report pointing to 2025 FID; there’s been no change to the plan that once DFS is released FID is to be made asap with mediating factors being finance and permitting. It seems the finance side of things isn’t expected to take too long at all - only the permits may be less certain in their timeline but I believe the recent EU green deal plans can only help on this point. I think things do look positive indeed. I also think that by extension the production date outlined in the same document is unnecessarily pessimistic and probably inaccurate
Thanks to Tomcoves! I think they used to post on here as Tomre and also recently posted on LSE
I chatted with KC for an hour after the AGM and received email correspondence from him since. Without going into too much detail, it’s fair to say that (and I take him at face value on these points) not everything is in his control more is he privy to every strategic conversation pertaining to Cinovec that CEZ have with other players, and in fact publicly disclosing some of the things people are desperate to hear from him could upset higher up stakeholders to our detriment, but suffice to say his goals and motivations are well aligned with mine, and like others here I hold north of a million shares. There are many ways things might proceed from here and no one can be sure what the future looks like but for mine, I’m very very comfortable that we’ll get a very pleasing outcome but like most I am not too confident of the timeline. It is what it is, I wish it was happening faster but after my chat with him, I have zero desire to be out of EMH. Sorry to be vague guys, I did get more tidbits but I’m not going to go into details here but I’m convinced that exciting times are ahead some time next year.
Hence why I believe the project is in CEZs control who obviously want it to proceed swiftly as possible and our management cannot be the cause of any delays (being somewhat sidelined on this front)
As for fears around a buyout being unfair it seems Tomcoves has answers from the horses mouth again on 10th April
I specifically asked at the most recent AGM whether, in the event CEZ exercised their option to acquire EMH, the valuation was calculated according a formula relating to PFS/NPV value or some other multiple of existing numbers, and the answer was that no, there wasn’t a formula but rather an independent valuer would come in to look at a number of factors but predominantly recent transaction history would guide the valuation. Keliber was the only deal mentioned as an example. The valuation is to be done by an independent third party based on a sample of the most similar transactions that have taken place and the prices they attracted. Notably the keliber deal was mentioned as one such example of a deal that would most likely be referenced. Incidentally it was looked upon as a very favourable scenario that we were acquired in line with Keliber’s valuation. I haven’t done the sums on that myself.
But another poster did do the sums.... thanks to Mick88 (13th April)
based on the Keliber buyout by Sibanye bodes really well for any potential similar move by CEZ. It cost Sibanye 446 million Euro for just over 80% stake;
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sibanye-stillwater-raise-stake-finlands-keliber-2022-06-30/And this based on Kelibers UDFS which indicates NPV (8%) 1228 million Euro, 15000t Hydroxide / yr @ USD 25000/t;
https://news.cision.com/keliber/r/recently-updated-definitive-feasibility-study-shows-keliber-s-strong-profitabilityNow if EMH use the same figure ($25k/t) at their forecast 30000t/yr, what price EMH Fair Value.....win, win, win IMO...GLA
PS - considering Sibanye already held 30% stake, they were effectively only buying a further 50% stake in the project (taking them up to 80%). So my *** packet calculation for Fair Value in the event EMH / CEZ buyout was implemented is Euro 4.68 / sh. This is quite enough to put off CEZ from a buyout, considering it is not part of their forward plans anyway (which I've post many times).
So bring on that DFS, permits and FID as we will be taking this to production, otherwise it will cost someone a lot of money (and make all holders a lot)....IMO (obviously).
So not at all the BCN type scenario?
(20min delay)