"The other way of analysing the article is to question why retailers do not want to commit to offtake agreements. Is it pricing? or an expectation that demand that is here in the next few years will be gone in the medium term?"
Yep, good points. I think it is pricing.
The Labor Govt got into power because they promised the world, then when sitting in the chair, they suddenly changed the narrative. eg Labor said they would cut power bills by $275 pa.
Now they suddenly go back on their word.
Labor change Climate policy to claim they will mandate 35% emissions reduction by 2030 (7 & half years time), yet they cannot even guarantee to keep the lights on at present, let alone by 2030 when they claim they will have sufficient renewables available to meet their emissions target.
My point is, that now we have the Labor govt ministers (King and Plibersek) claiming that THEY will retain the devils spawn (ie coal and gas) available to enable the lights to remain on !!!
So we (coal and gas industry) now seem to have support of Labor such that they agree that gas will be the fuel of transition, until renewables will be able to provide the energy to Aust consumers and industry.
Well, I can remember the gas industry explaining that scenario and need over probably half a decade.
This Labor mob can cynically just ignore this previous advice.
point is (for me), that the provision of gas will be encouraged by Labor, whilst they pump money into new renewable infrastructure.
Gas and COE will be encouraged to deliver. Witness Gina and Senex announcements.
Pricing of gas , and security of supply, will still be the primary considerations of customers on East Coast.
Have a look at below graph. It is from COE Dec 2020 preso. There might be a later one?
View attachment 4596445Cooper's pricing at that time was about half of LNG imports.
Of course, that pricing differential will be hugely larger now, with the price of LNG.
Exploration and Production costs for Vic gas will be higher also, but I reckon still way, way lower than LNG imports. And Fortescue will be paying international LNG prices for its gas.
(by the way, the hypocritical Vic Govt, whilst banning onshore gas exploration, allowed Beach to drill their offshore Otway permits, from
onshore ! )
Anyway. I hope COE can get its act together, and get Orbost producing. And its still looking grim, because yesterday and today are about 36tjd.
So cleaning is about every week, so about every 5 days they clean an absorber. ie only about 5 days where Orbost is producing utilising 2 absorbers.
Clearly Thats why our SP is still struggling.
(20min delay)