Hi guys
I have done the math on what Toho would have to take off us to get to the 49.9% under their proposal and its quite a bit more than the 24%-28% that has been bandied about. Quite simply:
Toho owns 24.1% of CBH
Everyone else must then own the rest ie 75.9%
To get to 49.9% Toho must buy another 25.8% (ie 24.1% they've already got + 25.8% extra = 49.9%).
Hence Toho must buy 25.8% from the remaining 75.9%.
This expressed as a percentage is 25.8%/75.9% = 33.99%
So if its directly proportional then they have to basically buy 34% of our shares off us.
Now with the price trading at $0.18 I don't believe there's much downside to waiting to see what Nyrstar is up to. This is because if Toho is as good as it gets you'll:
1. get 34% of your holding away 0.34 x $0.25 = $0.085
2. the price of the shares will drop to pre bid levels now that Toho is joined at the hip with CBH, say $0.14, your remaining shares will be worth: 0.66 x $0.14 = $0.0924.
This gives a combined value of $0.1774, pretty much where the stock is now.
Anyone see any flaws in my logic?
Cheers
J.
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