correction getting much closer now., page-90

Jaolsa,

While the Prophet might have been a bit blunt in his comments on teshnical analysis, I agree with his position. Much of the technical analysis theory has been developed by observation after the event. I refer in particular to Elliot wave theory and Gann analysis, neither of which have any mathematical basis. I accept that trend lines can be useful and momentum indicators can be a measure of trader hysteria, but for those who went through the agony of quantitative analysis at any of our esteemed tertiary institutions will remember that prediction outside the limit of the data ( in our case the fututre) is not valid.

If we are concerned about the future, we need to look beyond the reading of the chicken's entrails and look to the real life issues which can influence our destiny. You correctly identified the economy as one and bond yields as another. With regard to the latter, a well defined turning point is when the bond yield curve crosses over the equity yield curve. At that point the money starts coming off the table, but there is still a reasonable gap between the two which will probably be maintained with the coming earnings season which is expected to be good.

My view, and please don't sell the house, is that some form of correction will occur but not in the immediate future and could take the form of slowly subsiding bear market. But then I could be wrong